Regional Conflict’s Potential to Escalate
Recent air strikes between Israel and Iran could draw in other nations, igniting a wider war. Calls for peace are widespread, but what if those pleas are ignored? A multitude of dangerous scenarios may unfold, with disastrous consequences.
America’s Possible Involvement
Many in Iran believe that American forces backed Israel’s attacks. They might retaliate against U.S. interests in the Middle East, such as military bases and diplomatic missions. Existing proxy forces in the region, though diminished, could also be a threat.
The United States, fearing such strikes, removed some personnel. Publicly, the U.S. warned Iran about attacking American targets. A potential attack resulting in the death of an American citizen could force Donald Trump into action.
“…the US has warned Iran firmly of the consequences of any attack on American targets.”
—News Report
Military analysts say only the U.S. has the capacity to penetrate the deepest Iranian nuclear facilities, especially the Fordow site. However, Trump promised not to begin additional Middle East “forever wars”. Furthermore, many Republicans are keen to support Israel’s government and its goal of regime change in Tehran. Involvement by the U.S. would be a major escalation.
Potential Involvement of Gulf Nations
If Iran fails to damage Israeli military and other strategic targets, they could then target Gulf nations. These nations are believed to have supported Israel’s enemies. There are numerous energy and infrastructure targets in the region.
Some Gulf countries host U.S. airbases and discretely helped defend Israel. If the Gulf is attacked, it could ask for American support and the defense of Israel.
Israel’s Failure to Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Capability
What if an Israeli attack falls short, and Iran’s nuclear sites remain intact? Iran could have up to 400kg of 60% enriched uranium. While some scientists may be killed, Iran’s nuclear expertise and know-how will not be destroyed.
If the Israeli attack encourages Iran to quickly pursue nuclear weapons, it might force Israel into further attacks. This cycle of attack and counter-attack could engulf the region. As of late 2023, Iran has already enriched uranium to 60% purity, which is close to weapons grade, raising international concerns (IAEA Report).
Potential for Global Economic Shock
The price of oil is increasing. What if Iran attempted to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would further limit the movement of oil? What if the Houthis in Yemen increased attacks in the Red Sea? Many countries face a cost-of-living crisis.
Rising oil prices would worsen global inflation. Furthermore, rising oil prices would benefit President Putin of Russia.
Collapse of Iran’s Regime
If Israel succeeded in forcing the collapse of Iran’s government, what kind of vacuum would be left? Benjamin Netanyahu has said his goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity, but also regime change. Bringing down Iran’s government may appeal to some in the region, but it could bring unforeseen consequences. Both Iraq and Libya experienced problems when their governments were removed.
The war’s progression in the coming days is crucial. How hard will Iran retaliate, and how much restraint will the U.S. exert on Israel? The answers to these questions are of utmost importance.
