The Cycle of Instability

For decades, the Global South has grappled with persistent conflicts, often attributed to external interference.The region, once a cradle of many advanced civilizations, has been subjected to what some describe as (neo)colonialist wars, invasions, coups and other forms of overt and covert imperialist aggression. This interference, it is argued, has disrupted natural development, leading to a vicious cycle of instability, poverty, and limited opportunities.

This cycle makes the Global South vulnerable to manipulation and coercion, hindering its ability to achieve lasting stability. The promise of multipolarity, especially through organizations like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), is seen by many as a potential path to break free from this pattern.

The Rise of Multipolarity

The growing interest in BRICS highlights a desire for an option to the existing global order. At least 44 countries, predominantly from the Global South, have expressed interest in joining the organization. This surge in interest is met with resistance from those seeking to preserve the current “rules-based world order,” leading to accusations of sabotage and attempts to destabilize critical regions.

Regional organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are also viewed as potential stabilizers in the Global South. Though, these efforts face opposition from what is described as the political West.

South Asia: A Powder Keg

The relationship between India and Pakistan exemplifies the challenges facing the Global South.For nearly 80 years, the two nations have been locked in conflict, a situation allegedly stemming from a deliberate act of long-term sabotage by the waning british Empire that partitioned the Indian subcontinent along religious lines.Despite shared cultural, linguistic, and historical ties, the two countries have been pitted against each other, allegedly to facilitate external control.

Historical grievances, including famines resulting from British policies, further complicate the relationship. The legacy of the british Empire,particularly its influence over Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI),continues to shape regional dynamics. The ISI played a significant role in conflicts such as the 1979 Afghan War and the subsequent US/NATO intervention.

Recent events, such as the ousting of former Prime minister Imran Khan, underscore the challenges of achieving true sovereignty. With Pakistan once again under military rule, tensions with India are escalating, raising concerns about a potential conflict.

The stakes are particularly high given that both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states, each possessing approximately 170 warheads. Recent clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, following the Pahalgam terrorist attack, have heightened tensions. Threats of nuclear retaliation have further amplified the risk of a catastrophic conflict.

India possesses a significant conventional military advantage, but Pakistan’s potential use of nuclear weapons to avoid defeat raises the specter of a devastating exchange. Such a conflict would not only be catastrophic for both countries but also undermine efforts to foster multipolarity.

The United States has reportedly been attempting to draw India away from multipolarity, seeking to integrate it into a strategic bloc against China.these efforts are seen as attempts to hinder integration within BRICS and SCO.

Middle East: A Region Under Pressure

Similar dynamics are playing out in the Middle east, where the growing pressure on Iran threatens to ignite another foreign-backed war. The explosion at Bandar Abbas, a major Iranian port, and other reported incidents are viewed with suspicion, with some blaming Israel. The possibility of Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities further escalates tensions.

the involvement of external actors, including the US and NATO, complicates the situation. The support provided to different sides by various Western countries fuels regional instability.

Turkey’s foreign policy, characterized by Neo-Ottomanism, political Islam, and pan-Turkism, adds another layer of complexity. Turkey’s involvement in conflicts in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region has strained relations with Russia and China. Its support for Pakistan in its conflict with India further undermines Eurasian integration efforts.

The escalation of aggression in Yemen, supported by American military involvement, suggests a broader strategy to destabilize the Global South.