Head of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhan Gebreyesus declared: it is impossible to predict the further development of the coronavirus epidemic. Is a new pandemic threatening the world? And what to do in order not to get sick? AiF.ru asked Svetlana Andreev, virologist and senior lecturer at Chelyabinsk State University.
Nadezhda Uvarova, AiF.ru: Svetlana, what forecasts do you, as a virologist and biologist, give regarding the development of coronavirus? Can it, as stated by WHO, affect two-thirds of the population? We all will die?
Svetlana Andreeva: Definitely we all will not die. This is already evident in the percentage of recovered. Coronaviruses are often found in nature. These are one of the viruses that cause SARS. Another thing is that this is a new virus, it mutated, changed its properties, adapted to the human body and became dangerous for it. After four years, it will become as common as the mass of SARS viruses, and most people will develop immunity to it. This is due to the fact that the virus itself through passage, that is, infection of many organisms, will change its properties. A vaccine is being developed, it will appear. But will she be needed by then?
All viruses, including the coronavirus, do not have the task of killing all people on Earth, otherwise they will be left without “hosts”. But over the years, he, of course, can take the lives of many people.
– What scenario of the epidemic do you consider most likely? Will it infect two-thirds of the planet? Will millions die? Or does he mutate and become no more complicated than ARVI?
– The most possible scenario, in my opinion, is that in 1-2 years this virus will not be able to cause such serious consequences. By frequent infection of organisms, it will no longer be so dangerous, virulent, it will be easier to tolerate by people. Through this period of time, people will get sick in a milder form. But it is possible that a new virus will appear. Viruses generally regulate the size of a population, but one hundred percent never eliminate it. Therefore, they provide biodiversity, do not allow one organism to dominate the planet.
– Coronavirus – the worst virus that threatens humanity now?
– The world is now an epidemic of coronavirus. But if we take the same HIV infection, then we are witnessing a pandemic. That is, with coronavirus, in comparison with the same HIV, everything, thank God, is very good. We simply do not represent the huge number of people who die from HIV, but we follow the numbers that mortality from coronavirus gives. But it is localized mainly in China. And with the immunodeficiency virus, it is precisely a pandemic: it is spread all over the world. Yes, if an HIV-infected person takes antiretroviral therapy, he lives and does not feel the manifestations of the disease. But if you suddenly miss the drug by the clock, then the virus immediately attacks.
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Prior to coronavirus, influenza spread widely, which arose again in China. And the reason for it was the huge population density. The higher it is, the greater the number of infected. In general, as long as humanity exists, so many viruses exist.
“Which viruses did we defeat, and which continue to threaten us?”
– We survived the pandemic of plague, measles and those infections against which we are vaccinated: diphtheria, tuberculosis, rubella, mumps, cholera. And what also helped them survive? Even in the Middle Ages, we were able to defeat the plague using all the same quarantine measures. People realized that rodents were to blame. Rats can still spread plague, tularemia, and other dangerous diseases.
Now rabies are periodically infected, and often children. If earlier, in order for a person to become ill, it was necessary to survive the bite of a sick animal, but now the situation has changed. The infected animal does not rush, but licks. Recently, a child died of rabies in the Chelyabinsk region. Parents did not even suspect that this is it. With rabies, the behavior of the animal changes: the quiet and affectionate become aggressive, and the evil and wild ones turn into good and meek.
Tick-borne encephalitis is also common in many regions of Russia. These are all dangerous viruses, but there are vaccines against them.
But not a single virus, not a single bacterium will ever kill one hundred percent of the human population.
– What is the specificity of coronavirus specifically? Is it possible that the disease will become, for example, chronic?
– The probability of its transition to a chronic form is zero, since viruses that cause long-term infections (such as HIV) have a different tropism (specificity) and a different mechanism of replication (self-copying). The peculiarity of this virus, in contrast to the usual acute respiratory viral infection, is in the place of localization. If with SARS these are the upper respiratory tract or bronchi, then with coronavirus – the lower respiratory tract and lungs, which is more serious. As complications can be sepsis, and meningitis, and acute respiratory failure.
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How does a virus mutate? For example, a person is vaccinated against the flu, from even two of its varieties. He receives a virus from outside, but, since he has immunity, he does not become infected. And two viruses, exchanging genotypes in his body, will be dangerous not for himself, but for another person nearby who does not have both of these vaccines.
– And why do we get the flu shot, and in many cases it does not help? How can I protect myself from the flu, SARS, coronavirus?
“It is people who think that a flu vaccine is not helping.” Just a lot of flu strains. Often, SARS is similar in symptoms, and the disease is mistaken for it. And there is no vaccination against ARVI, since there are a lot of varieties.
– To what extent is quarantine justified in the case of coronavirus?
– It is very justified. It is also important to isolate people who may become potential sources of infection, and reduce the level of communication, especially schoolchildren and students. It is worth following the recommendations not to attend public institutions. The measures are identical for the flu, and for the coronavirus, and for SARS. For prevention, everything is simple: it is recommended to wash your hands and follow all the standard actions in such cases.
We cannot imagine whether our country will be able to hold back the outbreak. While the virus is very virulent (infectious – approx. Ed.) In relation to the human body, but over time it will pass: it will change under the influence of factors of the immune system.
The fact that it is transmitted by airborne droplets, of course, is not good, because the probability of infection is high. It is much lower if it was transmitted by contact or fecal-oral route.
– There was information that we received the virus from animals. It’s true?
– Often they talk about the transmission of viruses from animals, but this is not always correctly understood. Coronavirus, which causes infections in animals, is not dangerous for humans, since it is tropic (preferred) with respect to the animal’s body. But, when there was frequent contact between a person and an animal, a person received a high infectious dose, and some of the viruses mutated so much that they could defeat the human immunity and cause an infection in him. And these very first mutations of strains, as a rule, are the most dangerous. But they are no longer dangerous for the animal from which they passed to us. This will be a purely anthroponous (human) infection, and before that it was a zoonotic (animal) one.
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– That is, for now, immunity to coronavirus is our dream?
– Many people already have immunity to this virus! Someone with this coronavirus infection gets sick and dies, while someone recovers! This indicates immunity, which fights and wins.
Even within the family, it is possible to avoid infection from a sick person, if, again, to put into practice all the precautions. In addition to washing the apartment and its disinfection, you need to wear dense cotton-gauze dressings. Wash them, boil, iron. If masks are disposable, wear each no more than 3 hours.
– I saw allegations that the mask will not help in contact with an infected coronavirus. After all, the virus is much smaller than the plexus of tissue fibers on a bandage.
– The virus is most often found on the mucous membranes, droplets of saliva are sprayed when the patient coughs and sneezes. Therefore, they talk about the airborne droplet: it is the drops that fly out of the nasopharynx. The virus itself, of course, is smaller than the pores of the mask, but the drop stops on the fabric, lingers on the mask. Another thing, if we are talking about employees working with the virus in the laboratory, or about doctors taking a stream of patients. Such a mask will not save them: the infectious dose is high. Therefore, so many health workers in China have died. In such cases, you really need a special filter with cartridges in which there will be smaller pores. Gas masks or special overalls can also help.
On the streets, by the way, it makes no sense to wear a mask, because the concentration of the virus is low. The air flow is quite large, the risk of infection is almost zero. Unless, of course, we walk in Wuhan, where a huge number of people are infected. There is a point.
– That is, simple actions are required of us: he came home – washed his hands. What else is needed to protect yourself to the maximum?
– Frequent airing of apartments, cleaning, disinfection. Washing dishes is already an anti-epidemic measure.
And yet – be sure to follow the vaccination calendar! Unfortunately, some parents of young children and in social networks spread information that there may be complications from vaccinations. These parents really do not understand that the pathogens against which modern children are vaccinated have not left our population anywhere. We constantly encounter the same diphtheria in our laboratory. That is, a lot of viruses here, on our mucous membranes, we are vaccinated, we have immunity, we are not sick. If I don’t vaccinate my child, he may die from diphtheria. Now there are analogues of vaccines. Yes, DTP is poorly tolerated, with temperature, but it can be replaced by another.
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And a healthy lifestyle plays a huge role. People with anorexia, obesity, suffering from chronic diseases, struggle worse with viruses, including coronaviruses: the body must cope with another problem, it can’t put all its strength into this one. This also includes workaholics who work from morning to night. They really get tired, and so does the immune system. It is more difficult for such a person to transfer a viral infection.
Elementary – pay attention to your diet. If your breakfast is coffee with a bun, lunch is a hamburger, dinner is pasta with kepchup, then where are the vitamins? Where will the immune system take proteins? Even buckwheat is much healthier. Change your diet to prevent any viral infection. Add vegetables, fruits. Cooking soup, this is a storehouse of vitamins. But here it is important not to cook it in a ten-liter pan, then to boil it for a week.
Sauerkraut is much better than multivitamin preparations from pharmacies. I need protein – meat, eggs. Any of us can allow proper nutrition. It is not expensive, it means diverse.
I would also attribute high physical activity to prevention.
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