According to the analyst, among the four directions there is only one where the enemy has established logistics.
At the 12th month wars again, information about the probable new offensive of the Russians. According to the estimates of the world and Ukrainian community, it can take place in February-March.
According to the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexandra Kovalenkonow in Ukraine there are 4 difficult bridgeheads, where the military situation can change on any day.
He spoke about the most realistic scenarios for the development of events in a comment. TSN.ua.
“We are talking about the left-bank Kherson region, the Zaporozhye region, the Donetsk and Lugansk bridgeheads. The Russians are concentrating forces and means in large numbers,” says Kovalenko. “But of these four bridgeheads, they can conduct offensive operations only on one – on the Donetsk. This is the only bridgehead where they have more or less established logistics and are able to conduct offensive and assault operations. Gradually they do it in the direction of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, they try to move in the direction of Seversk, Vuhledar, but there are a large number of defense lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, many important heights for artillery fire, which are controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russians, although they have a large concentration of forces and means on this bridgehead, all of them, as of today, are technically understaffed. That is, there is not enough technology.
According to Kovalenko, the main component of the enemy is infantry and artillery support.
“But they are not doing well with artillery due to a shortage of shells,” the expert believes. “This is noticeable due to the fact that they cannot keep a high rate of fire for a long time. There is an opportunity to attack, but it is not complete. If we talk about other areas, then the presence of forces and means that are in the Lugansk region and in the Zaporozhye region is more for defense. The problem with artillery is greater than in the Donetsk bridgehead. If they go on the offensive in the Lugansk region or in the Zaporozhye region, then they will have enough resources for one and a half to two weeks. In the event of the destruction of this resource, they will not be able to hold the defense. They will not be able to block the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, to summarize, the offensive of the occupiers is more likely on the Donetsk bridgehead “.