Was there a Christmas effect on the epidemic? This was the great fear of the authorities. With the approach of the holidays, the circulation of the virus was still important across the country. Christmas Eve, with its family gatherings, in a closed and poorly ventilated space, to eat without a mask, seemed to bring together all the ingredients necessary for many contaminations …
The government has however chosen to relax its measures for Christmas, while increasing the recommendations, recommending “a gauge of six adults at the table, not counting the children”.
Have these tips been respected in our departments? Two weeks after Christmas, the figures allow to give a first indication, which will have to be confirmed in the coming days. In Lorraine and Franche-Comté, the epidemic rebound does not seem obvious. To see more clearly, we have detailed the different indicators in our regions.
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Incidence rate by department
Criterion that we hear most often, the incidence rate corresponds to the number of positive tests per 100,000 inhabitants over 7 rolling days. It is an indicator that gives a good idea of the number of people infected in a given territory, but not of the severity of their condition, and necessarily depends on the number of tests carried out.
As of January 4, 2021, 13 departments of the Grand Est and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté exceed 200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, or the limit set by the government for the establishment of an advanced curfew at 6 p.m. While most of these departments are already under curfew, Haut-Rhin and Côte d’Or have recently passed 200 and should therefore join the list soon.
Bas-Rhin, Yonne, Nièvre and Saône-et-Loire are also under close surveillance, their incidence rate being between 194 and 199, flirting with 200.
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The epidemic rebound remains slight in Lorraine and Franche-Comté
But how has this incidence rate evolved since December 24, when many families gathered to celebrate New Year’s Eve? In Lorraine and Franche-Comté, almost all the departments are experiencing a slight rebound in the epidemic.
In Haute-Saône, for example, the incidence rate fell from 251.7 to 282.2 in the space of ten days. The Moselle goes from 202 to 235.5, from December 24 to January 4 (latest data available). Most blatantly, the Jura has seen a 50 point increase in its incidence rate, from 296 to 346. In the other departments, the increase in the incidence rate remains relatively slight, between +4 and +24.
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In hospitals, a more contrasted situation
There is no visible Christmas effect in the intensive care units. As we know, the effects of a relaxation of sanitary measures are visible about two weeks later in hospitals. However, 14 days after Christmas Eve, the number of Covid-19 patients admitted to intensive care varies greatly depending on the department: in Meurthe-et-Moselle and in the Vosges, the number of intensive care units tends to decrease. They stagnate in the Doubs, the Jura, the Territoire de Belfort, the Meuse. On the other hand, they increase in Moselle, going from 45 to 24 December to 58 to 7 January.
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However, the pressure on the hospital system remains “very strong”, said Prime Minister Jean Castex on Thursday, “one in two intensive care beds is occupied by a Covid patient”.
“It is out of the question to disarm our hospital system” he continued, “there is no question that we let our guard down in the weeks to come”.
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