Welsh Parliament Set for Major Overhaul in 2026

The Senedd, Wales’s parliament, is poised for a significant transformation in the upcoming 2026 election. This pivotal shift involves a larger legislature and a new voting system, promising to reshape Welsh democracy and potentially influence electoral debates across the United Kingdom.

Electoral Landscape Transformation

Come May, the Senedd election will introduce substantial changes to the Welsh political landscape. The number of elected members is expanding from 60 to 96, alongside a revamp of the voting system, now enshrined in law.

Since its inception in 1999, the Welsh assembly has evolved, gaining greater responsibilities, including primary law-making powers. The 2014 Wales Act bestowed additional financial powers. However, the size remained unchanged, raising concerns about its effectiveness.

An independent panel in 2017 deemed the Senedd inadequate, asserting that 60 members were insufficient for scrutinizing the government, passing legislation, and addressing constituent needs. A larger chamber, they argued, would enhance both the quality of laws and democratic accountability.

Wales has fewer elected politicians per capita compared to other UK nations. Scotland boasts 129 MSPs, while Northern Ireland has 90 MLAs. Even with the upcoming changes, Wales will still have fewer elected members per citizen than Northern Ireland.

Changes to the Voting System

The election will see a change in how Senedd members are selected. The “additional member system,” which blends “first-past-the-post” for constituencies with proportional representation for regions, will be replaced in 2026.

A “closed list” proportional system, utilizing the D’Hondt method, will take its place. This system aims to be fairer, ensuring party seat proportions more closely mirror vote shares. This method, however, gives voters less direct say over individual candidates.

Wales will be divided into 16 constituencies, each electing six MSs. Instead of voting for a single candidate, voters will select a party or independent candidate. Parties will submit lists of candidates, with seats allocated based on the overall vote share using the D’Hondt formula.

This approach was recommended by a special committee on Senedd reform in 2022. Several European countries, including Spain and Portugal, use this system. The D’Hondt method has, at times, favored larger parties in small constituencies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CU3F3ToIIg" loading="lazy

Potential Impact and Concerns

One significant concern involves the growing differences among UK electoral systems. The UK-level uses first-past-the-post, while some Welsh councils experiment with the single transferable vote method.

Consequently, some Welsh voters might navigate three different voting systems across elections. This increases the risk of confusion. Voters accustomed to the “winner takes all” nature of FPTP could find seat allocation in Wales confusing by 2026.

With multiple systems, the risk is that citizens don’t fully grasp how their votes translate into representation. This risks undermining confidence and lowering voter turnout. Voters need easily accessible information on how their votes function—and why it matters.

“News about Wales often barely registers beyond its borders, while news about politics in Wales barely registers within,” a commentator observed. Electoral reform often prompts broader conversations.

“More Senedd members could ease workloads, improve local representation and importantly, may encourage a more diverse pool of people to stand for office.”

—Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, Bangor University

As Welsh voters adapt to the new proportional system, some may question Westminster’s FPTP model. FPTP is often criticized for creating “wasted votes” and encouraging tactical voting. A 2023 study indicated that 38% of voters in the UK feel their vote doesn’t matter under the current system (Electoral Reform Society).

A more proportional system reduces the need for tactical voting. This could alter voter habits in Wales. If the 2026 reform yields a more representative and effective Senedd, it might reshape Welsh democracy and reignite debates about electoral reform across the UK.