Vlda neum evaluate the situation, or plays the salmon method, kf Expobank. The crisis brings foreign investors Companies and markets

PRAGUE If the rules change, there is no two-day horizon of their effect, then either the government cannot evaluate the situation or the authorities play the salmon method in the population, he comments in an interview for the Lidovky.cz server.

Lidovky.cz: How do you evaluate the current pandemic situation?

From the debates between epidemiologists, economists and politicians, who came up with a parallel with monetary policy. At a time when it was about inflation, erudite economists know that these reflections are what the NB said a year and a year ago. It is the same when looking at the development of infected people. There is a time down there, also what we see today, above what we had been doing 14 days and those weeks ago.

And this is confusing from the point of view of the intuition of the parties, because when I say something, I see the result the next day. It also psychologically requires a different type of mylen, for which most people are not ready. When I drive and step on the brakes, I brake immediately. But here it’s like a huge ocean parnk. When I take the helm, I go straight under it for a long time and only then does it start. That is why this day of the situation for people is beyond their experience and reality. Only the captain has this experience. The one in how and when he has to turn the rudder in advance and what will be longer.

Lidovky.cz: So who should steer the zaocensk parnk?
In a situation where you are deciding on the apartment and non-housing of companies and the employment of some people, the decision must always be made by a politician. But the policy must be consistent and based on a long-term perspective. Our policy, if I take it in general and historically, is not like that. Fiscal policy has always been pro-cyclical, not counter-cyclical, as it should be. In a crisis, she drank oil into the fire, a city to dampen it.

In contrast, the Nordic states have a consistent policy for a long time, and the government is trying to achieve a balanced result. And that comes back to him in two. In our country, this court is generally not. This is not even in America. The division of society, its polarization, is not only there much in the past. What does a psychologically strong people in the establishment bring with them?

For us, this is reflected in all areas of society. To this end, the people of the younger generation perceive the world electronically, to clip, to receive signals from the world of the establishment to be more intense. In addition, the young people evaluated that this disease was not dangerous for them, and behave accordingly. And for that division of society nect ir responsibility, then responsibility vi establishment. I think that they evaluated it for themselves quite correctly, the risk is bad for everyone, not for anyone else.

Lidovky.cz: You have now described the trend of non-trusting government, which is firmly rooted not only in our country. Is the government aware of anything that can be done about it?
I can’t answer that, it would be almost for the Nobel Prize. Experience with the exchange rate bundle brought me to these weights a few years ago. Although this was the thing that helped the economy, the court of the establishment was at such a minimum that it was a priori to reject this measure, and it made economic sense. And I think this is being repeated today with your own precautions.


■ Je absolventemFakulty electrotechnick VUT.

■ In 1998, eight years later, he received a habilitation from Charles University in the field of economics at CERGE UK.

■ He continued his scientific practice at American universities in Pittsburgh and Michigan.

■ In the years20032008dilNrodohospodsk state Academy vd Ra CERGE UK.

■ From nora2011 to nora2017 he was a member of the NB Bank Bank.

■ In the years 20182019 he was the rector of the Anglo-American University in Prague.

■Odledna 2020je editelemExpobank.

Lidovky.cz: How do you feel the impact of the measures now?
Weaken the yard in the system. If, as a rule, the two-day effect horizon is not in place, either the government will not be able to evaluate the situation, or the authorities will play a role in the population and businesses. Both are important for credibility. If we add obvious obvious pre-election caution and post-election force, then we probably have the most expensive choices here.

Lidovky.cz:Isn’t that disbelief and underestimation of your development a very hefty Czech quality? I’ve heard that we’ve had this in us since the Battle of Bl Hoe. And that the attitude of the people was formed in the spirit of the figure of the egg soldier.
I don’t think it’s just an esk nature. The trend is worldwide. But our historical experience probably deepens and exacerbates the problems that arise from the refusal of the authorities. There was such a relatively short window after 1989, when the court in the government and establishment existed. But as soon as it fell back into the old dorms.

Lidovky.cz:ada lid k, e ns this covidov slap will wake up a bit from the feeling that we have absolutely everything. Let’s get married somehow?
I would hope so. But historically all periods marked by crises have always led to a number of unsystematic ones and the strengths of protesters and movements. Bad on how the impacts will be in the social area and in the economic area in general. I think medically it will work two or later. Let’s talk about a similar horizon as for policy changes, ie year and year and pl. But a medical rush does not mean that it will turn out to be socially. Each crisis has asymmetric effects. More impact on those poor, socially weak. And this, of course, has a repercussion on the development of society as such.

Lidovky.cz:What will it look like according to vs, and will the situation be medically settled?
Then the measures will be replaced by a conclusion on the closure and picnic of the economy. Restrictions on the movement of people not only at the international level will disappear, probably not completely. Our experience shows, as we saw you downstream of the World Trade Organization building in New York in 2001, that people always react by first becoming passive for a while. You travel only started at a certain distance. But it started to be complicated and pleasant. I have a new check. A similar model will come to mind.

Lidovky.cz: Will the coronavirus change in terms of structure, functioning supply chains, international trade and investment?
The impacts can be quite fatal. Before the pandemic, there were debates about the extent to which outsourcing or shifting production to other countries is a security issue. At the same time, the situation has accelerated this debate. There is a greater perception that deliveries may be compromised because international trade is being introduced at the front desk or month. It will also be an effort to have a robust supply system that resists this type of risk. And let’s just talk about the economy of the classical type, built on industry. But in Europe and in the developed world, they have a lot in the service. And there will be that impact much in t.

Lidovky.cz:What did the covid say to the vows?
Services are built on human interaction. The fact that restaurants or fitness facilities are closed may seem to me like a small problem. But given the share of services in GDP, which today is not in industry, on the contrary, it shows that the impact on the economy is large. In the Czech Republic, the initial estimate that the cessation of these activities in the month will take about a percent of GDP. The other services also have a major impact. Plus there are a number of other activities on them. And if we have the classic state of the economy, it still needs to have a purchasing power demand from the economy, which is based on services.

Lidovky.cz:Talk about digitization as one thing. Would it help the contact profession to transfer business to another form permanently?
I see two quite different groups. One of them is services that have no returns from the scope. Typically cadence, beauty salon. Where and with the customer is given and cannot be limited. And then services where investment assistance is able to provide this service differently. It is stored in digital channels. That was seen in Jae. Restaurants have been trying, but it’s not working economically. But some services go very long like you financially. To urit mry, of course. We dream of adding to you the services that may be of interest to clients. As you have the opportunity to shop at the Czech Mint or use a robotic investment.

Lidovky.cz: We entered the pandemic with a weakening economy, suffering from labor shortages, rising wages, a real estate market, and overcapacity in the automotive sector. If it weren’t for this, would we be on it now?

Do urit mry ano. If we had set the better communication options with the state since the arrest, if it were bureaucratic, then everything would be simple now. It is always with us to prove to you that there is something while I was in the USA, it was taken there, time, we know, but watch out if it does. Also, that approach was opan. And we are again the door between Oban and Stt. If you don’t know your kennel, then why should the citizen live?

Lidovky.cz: What is actually happening in companies?
If I could characterize it in one word, it would be uncertainty. However strategic weights and fulfillment are burdened with such a degree of uncertainty that most companies need something in the style of a crisis woman. The situation is changing so fast that you need to be able to react immediately to changes.

The NB works with two scenes, optimistic and pessimistic, and also estimates a decline in GDP in the range of some eight to about 13 percent. And the decline in GDP is not a statistical word, behind it is a real business, companies that lose clients, sales that lay off people and end. Reln human pbhy. These effects on people are then reflected in aggregate demand.

Lidovky.cz:What would mla udlat vlda?
Uncertainty is fought quite badly when there is no door. But when I leave the services, the links to Germany are important for us. Also, if the Germans do not make a mistake, it will turn out for us quite a while.

Lidovky.cz: A number of companies, mainly from the automotive industry, are suffering from a shortage of employees. Especially for foreigners who cannot reach us due to covidu.
Our economy is partly based on the import of labor. If we start from the medical prediction that it will be possible to get under control for five years, we will find a turning point in terms of structural changes. There will be a mass of companies, a multinational enterprise, a regrouping capital. Each crisis has a problem and there are two where they could expand.

Lidovky.cz:What will be suppressed here?
In Prague, the complete dominance of the tourist industry will probably disappear to a large extent. This department will have to behave differently. As well as air transport. Holiday travel will remain, but business flights will fail. Companies are forced to use online means of communication far more. And once they learn it, they stay with it. Of course, some of the business is based on personal contact. But a number of things on the level of multinational companies do without travel expenses. Companies have become accustomed to it being cheaper this way.

Lidovky.cz: In lt, we slung our shoulders as we overcame the pandemic. Now we’re at the stt, who can handle it. Will it have any impact on foreign investment?
I don’t think so. A problem of this kind always has an immediate impact on international business and travel, ie the movement of people. And and it will be medically solved, it will be solved vude and it will not have an impact on the Czech Republic. But if our money is expensive, not only in terms of the impact on GDP, but even if it leads to bankruptcy, we will become such an acquisition center where investors will move to buy assets that are under pressure and will therefore be sold cheaply.

Lidovky.cz: It would also be increased by foreigners on the property of the enterprise.
We have always been an interesting destination for foreign investment. It will remain. The shift will be that so far we have attracted investors with a new tariff. If you have a lot more of them, it will be confused to find out what is in trouble, and to buy it.

Lidovky.cz: This in turn stimulates a negative mood in society.
You feel positive. If an investor comes abroad who has a pension and the company buys, then it means for the employees of the future. What looks like a pessimistic scene is actually very optimistic. Companies get a strategic partner in their future.

Lidovky.cz: Is esko able to keep up with digitization?
We’ve been at this for a long time. Nai ajci are highly qualified, but there are not enough of them. And there are a number of companies that are very good in this area and operate on the world market. And this is more important for them than the miniature Czech, they are also not very visible in our country.

Lidovky.cz: So are we able to attract investment abroad because of the good people in IT, as we once did because of good mechanical engineering?
In the global IT world, it doesn’t matter where the company or its employees share. There is brutal competition for quality and price. We have quality people, but they are expensive. India, on the other hand, is home to huge numbers. They are not as long as the nai, but they are cheap.

Lidovky.cz:How do you see how the former NB exchange rate of the koruna used to be? Weakened a lot. For? And what about the darkness?
It is a reflection of uncertainty and the overall development of the economy. It has always been the case that currencies, including the Czech crown, fall during periods of uncertainty. By keeping the same export, it will weaken the economy a bit. The course is often in our view of Alois Ran, so it is stronger, much better. In this way, he developed the theory of economic restrictions on fixed currencies. But it was true that Karel Engli was right then. The sludge that you both need to fly all over the world. You can invest from the crisis, but not prosper. We assume that the exchange rate is always a matter of the ratio of nominal quantities, in the system of elastic pensions the exchange rate is nothing absolute. In addition, it changes very quickly over time and short-term does not have to abrade real development, but only sentiment.


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