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Virus infections in China are declining – two new cases in Germany

Beijing / Frankfurt (Reuters) – The declining numbers of new infections in the coronavirus epidemic in China provide some relief.

FILE PHOTO: Workers operate a vehicle to carry out disinfection in Jianghan district, following an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, Hubei province, China February 10, 2020. China Daily via REUTERS

However, experts warn of premature optimism. The world must “wake up and consider this hostile virus as the number one enemy of the state,” said World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. The number of deaths in China recently rose by 97 to 1113, the number of new infections by 2015 to 44,653 – the lowest daily increase since the end of January. However, Internet platforms raised doubts about the reliability of the numbers after the Chinese government changed its disease classification guidelines last week.

Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn said on Wednesday that there might be thousands more infected people in China apart from the official statistics, but they would not be recorded because only cases with a symptomatic course were concentrated. The CDU politician considers drug shortages possible due to the virus crisis. Since production in China had been partially discontinued, this could also have consequences for the supply of pharmaceuticals in Germany.

In Germany, there have recently been two new cases related to the previously known cases in Bavaria – eight employees of the auto parts supplier Webasto and four family members. There are a total of 16 cases in this country. Webasto employees returned to work on Wednesday. The company headquarters in Stockdorf near Munich was closed two weeks after an employee became infected with the virus through a colleague from China.

EXPERT – TOO EARLY for all-clear

A leading Chinese scientist and government advisor predicted on Tuesday that the virus epidemic could peak this month and be over by April. But there are doubts about that. “It is far too early to say that,” warned the Australian government health expert Brendan Murphy. “We need to monitor the data very closely in the coming weeks before we can make predictions.”

A WHO expert said that even if the epidemic in China reached its peak, it was not necessarily the case outside the country. “It has spread to other places where the eruption is just beginning,” said Dale Fisher, looking at Singapore, for example. So far there have been 50 cases of illness. The country’s largest bank, DBS, sent 300 employees home from its headquarters after an employee tested positive for the virus.

Chinese officials had said the situation in the People’s Republic was under control. In the past week, China changed the guidelines for the registration of illnesses. After that, only cases should be registered if the infected persons show symptoms of illness. It is unclear whether the previous statistics also included people infected with the virus without symptoms.

Hundreds of cases have been reported in dozens of countries worldwide. The largest number of cases outside of China are currently on board the cruise ship

“Diamond Princess”, which is anchored in quarantine with around 3700 passengers in the Japanese port of Yokohama. A further 40 people were tested positive for the virus there, including the quarantine officer, and the number of people affected rose to 175.

The declining numbers of new infections in China are providing a tailwind on the stock markets. The stock exchanges in Shanghai and Tokyo rose, in Germany the Dax hit a new record high. However, the economists at Deutsche Bank warned that the spread of the virus, which has now received the official name “Covid-19”, could lead to a recession in Germany. “The corona virus poses considerable risks for our forecast of a recovery in the global economy, as we have assumed that the Chinese economy will pick up,” said the economists. China is the main trading partner of Europe’s largest economy. Taiwan has already cut its growth forecast for 2020 due to the possible consequences of the virus. The Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (Opec) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year.

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