UK Teens Vaping Mirror 1970s Smoking Habits

New Study Links E-cigarettes to Increased Smoking Risk

UK teenagers who currently use e-cigarettes are now as likely to start smoking traditional cigarettes as their peers were in the 1970s. This finding emerges from a significant long-term study examining intergenerational trends.

Vaping Doubles Smoking Likelihood

The research indicates that for teens who do not vape, the likelihood of taking up smoking is approximately 1.5%. However, this figure dramatically jumps to 33% for those who regularly use e-cigarettes. This suggests a concerning resurgence in smoking initiation, despite a substantial overall decline in teenage smoking rates over the last five decades.

E-cigarettes Challenge Declining Smoking Rates

Researchers are grappling with whether the rising popularity of vapes among young people jeopardizes the steady decrease in cigarette smoking prevalence. The study’s authors note that published research on this topic remains somewhat inconclusive. They also highlight uncertainty regarding how the current risks for young vapers compare to previous generations who began smoking before significant tobacco control measures and the advent of e-cigarettes.

Long-Term Cohort Study Provides Insight

To address these questions, the study analyzed data from three nationally representative UK birth cohorts: the National Child Development Study (NCDS, born 1958), The British Cohort Study (BCS, born 1970), and the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, born 2001). Participants provided data across multiple age points, allowing for a comprehensive generational comparison.

Smoking Rates Plummet, Then Plateau for Vapers

The analysis revealed a significant drop in teen smoking, from 33% in 1974 to 12% in 2018. However, within the most recent cohort (MCS), nearly half of participants had never vaped. Of those who had, 41% reported previous vaping and 11% were current users. For these contemporary teens, the probability of smoking was a mere 1.5% if they had never vaped, but a stark 33% if they were current vapers.

Changing Social Norms and Risk Factors

The researchers attribute the historical decline in smoking to tobacco control legislation, increased public awareness of health risks, and a societal shift away from accepting smoking. Factors like reduced teenage drinking rates and higher maternal education levels also played a role. Parental smoking prevalence also saw a significant decrease across the cohorts.

Despite these positive trends, the study authors express concern. “This probability is especially concerning given the recent increases in e-cigarette use prevalence among UK youth, despite some initial assurances that e-cigarettes would have little appeal to [them],” they stated.

Focus Needed on Vaping Prevention

The study acknowledges limitations, including insufficient data on certain sociodemographic factors in earlier cohorts. However, the core finding remains clear: “While our research shows that the historic decline in the likelihood of youth cigarette smoking has continued in this recent cohort of UK youth, overall, we find that this is not the case among e-cigarette users.“

The researchers conclude that current efforts to curb youth smoking must target both existing e-cigarette users and the prevention of vaping initiation. This dual approach is crucial for sustaining the hard-won declines in nicotine use among young people.

The findings echo concerns from public health bodies. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that in 2023, 7.6% of middle and high school students reported current e-cigarette use, a figure that continues to concern health officials (CDC, 2023).