USA: Donald Trump’s disastrous polls. But he can still win

In the latest ABC News and Washington Post poll, Joe Biden maintains a 12-point lead over Donald Trump. Millions of Americans have already voted in the presidential election by mail.

Recall that the US presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, but now many states are voting by post. Due to the coronavirus epidemic, observers expect that as many as 80 million voters could vote this way.

In an ABC News and Washington Post poll, Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden enjoys 54 percent of the vote. voters, and the candidate of the Republican Party and the current president – 42 percent.

Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and Greens candidate Howie Hawkins are supported by a total of approx. 3 percent. voters.

However, the winner of the US presidential election is not the one who wins the support of more voters. Donald Trump will almost certainly lose the popular vote, but that does not necessarily mean he will lose the presidency.

Americans vote in indirect elections – they elect electors who will elect the president. Each state has a predetermined number of electors and the winner takes it all. That is why results in key states will be so important. But there is also an advantage of Joe Biden.

In Michigan, Biden leads by eight points (survey average from FiveThirtyEight), seven in Pennsylvania, and seven in Wisconsin.

If Donald Trump does not win in at least one of these three states (and he won in all of them in 2016), he will practically close the path to gaining the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency – points out vox.com. It would then have to begin to “bounce” the states voting for the Democrats for decades.

Election analyst Sean Trende, however, points out that the chance of victory is 14 percent. (and this is what one of the models indicates) is not so little. “It’s like the chance that your three children will be all sons. It’s not that unusual, believe me!” – wrote Trende, privately the father of three sons.

In other words, analysts urge not to round the chances at the level of 10-20 percent. to zero. This is a cognitive bias – they argue. Donald Trump can still win, although he is not a favorite.

It is also noted that support for Donald Trump’s presidency is slightly higher than his election polls, which could indicate that he may get a better result. In addition, there are again questions about the possible underestimation of support for him at the state level.

(me)

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