The ripple effects of the corona pandemic are cracking society, increasing instability and will change political and economic realities around the world for years to come, warns the United States Intelligence Community in a fresh, striking safety assessment.
“The economic downturn from the pandemic is likely to create or exacerbate instability in at least some, but perhaps many, countries, as people become more desperate as a result of continuous pressure of economic loss, fewer jobs and failing supply chains,” the assessment said. presented by US Secretary of State Avril Haines in Congress on Tuesday.
The assessment, “Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community”, is known as the annual threat assessment in the United States, which addresses the situation in the country and international relations. It provides one of the first glimpses of what Americans and others can expect from the corona pandemic, as disagreements between the Trump administration and Congress led to the 2020 assessment being kept out of the public eye, writes CNN.
May lead to “collapse of governments”
In general, the corona pandemic and the economic picture increase the risk of internal and international conflicts, increased migration across national borders and even the collapse of governments in hard-hit countries, the security authorities state. They also point to obvious humanitarian concerns such as lack of food, resources and follow-up.
SPECIALLY EXPOSED: The consequences could affect the already hard-hit countries even more. Here from a crowded corona hospital in São Paulo, Brazil earlier in April. Photo: Brazil Photo Press / Splash News / NTB view more
In addition, the security authorities emphasize the concern that “great powers are fighting for supremacy and influence”.
“States are struggling to cooperate, and some are undermining cooperation. This is especially seen when governments turn their backs and question global agreements and mutual distribution (of funds and equipment). “Some states, such as China and Russia, are taking advantage of the crisis through medical supplies and vaccine diplomacy to strengthen their international position,” the assessment states.
“Beijing also uses its global health assistance work to export and acquire surveillance tools and technologies that the country considers critical of its military and economic future, such as biotechnology and computer technology and artificial intelligence,” it said.
THREAT ASSESSMENT: During the annual presentation of the ungraded threat assessment from the E-service, the head of the Intelligence Service, Morten Haga Lunde, pointed to China and Russia. Video: NTB view more
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Dangers of infection
The safety authorities point out that the world can not yet breathe a sigh of relief despite the rapid progress of vaccine development.
“A resurgence of infections in the first months of this year could cause even greater economic ripple effects as companies in hard-hit sectors such as the travel and catering industry are already struggling and governments are finding it increasingly difficult to cover incentive schemes,” they write.
In Norway, too, the authorities have determined that the corona pandemic amplifies the risk picture. In the Police Security Service (PST) threat assessment for 2021, it states that the level of threats against government officials is expected to increase, among other things due to dissatisfaction with corona measures.
In February, the National Security Authority (MSN) presented its assessment, stating that Norway is facing a complex risk picture in which foreign states try to exploit vulnerabilities in Norwegian functions, companies and systems. The digital risk picture has sharpened, and the pandemic has increased the risk, they conclude.
SPY HUNTER: Hanne Blomberg is head of counterintelligence in Norway. She encourages Norwegians who think they have been in contact with foreign spies to contact PST. Reporter: Gunnar Hultgreen / Video: Lars Eivind Bones view more
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“The computer attack on the Storting in the autumn of 2020 is one of several serious incidents in recent times that illustrate the threat actors’ capacity and willingness to affect Norwegian companies,” the assessment states.
Norwegian authorities have accused Russia of being behind the attack, which Russian authorities have denied.
Technological developments have given both state and non-state actors “expanded room for maneuver”, warned Nils Andreas Stensønes, head of the Intelligence Service, in the same period.
– This must be seen in connection with increased great power rivalry and are the most important driving forces behind the threat picture, he said.
