It is not certain that on the night of the US elections, Tuesday 3 November, we will know who won. Due to the pandemic, an unprecedented number of voters voted early (80 million so far), particularly by mail (51 million). Some states will be faster in counting postal ballots, others slower: this is because some start immediately to check them, open them (and contact voters to solve problems), while others wait for the day of the vote or a few hours before. In addition, some states also allow cards arriving after November 3 to be counted, as long as they are stamped by that day. Here are some predictions, looking at the states that count for victory.
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The fastest
Of the six hanging states that will decide presidential elections, Florida, North Carolina andArizona give the results by the American night or shortly after, because they have already done the so-called “pre-processing” of postal votes. John King, the election guru of Cnn, explains that it is possible that at 11 pm or midnight (4 or 5 Italian) we know who has won in Florida and perhaps in North Carolina. If Biden wins in one or both states (he is head to head with Trump in the polls) it will be nearly impossible for the current president to recover. If Trump wins in Florida instead, we will have to wait a couple of days to find out who won. And in any case, it cannot be excluded that, if the head-to-head is very tight, it will take more even in Florida: in 2008 it took two weeks and three recount to crown governor and senator.
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The slowest
Pennsylvania, Michigan e Wisconsin – the three Midwestern states that guaranteed Trump victory in 2016 – begin verifying postal cards only on or before the vote. In the first two states, the full results will only be announced on Thursday 5 or Friday 6. The governor of Wisconsin instead thinks there are already Tuesday 3 or Wednesday 4, because some checks on the outside of the envelopes have already taken place. Trump’s path to an eventual victory passes through these “slower” states: unless a poll error is made, he cannot be re-elected without winning at least one and it will hardly be official on November 3. Instead, Biden can reach the 270 electors needed to take over the White House without going through the slower states: he can get there through Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia. Even the Texas (many votes early, but mostly in person) and Ohio (results are expected Wednesday) if won by Biden could indicate a “blue avalanche”.
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False impressions
Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who is monitoring early voting on the site Elect Projectsays to Courier service: «We are seeing Democrats vote earlier than Republicans, as is typical in US elections. The expectation is that, as in the past, Republicans will catch up on the day of the vote. Until then we will not know if these votes will be enough for Trump to be re-elected ». At different times of the night, depending on which type of votes is announced first, one party may appear stronger than the other: where the postal results are known first (Florida, North Carolina and Arizona), the first results may be favorable. in Biden. Where votes are declared in person first, Trump may appear to have an advantage.
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After the elections
To complicate matters, some states accept cards that arrive in the mail after voting day (postmarked), such as Pennsylvania until November 6 or North Carolina until November 12. Over 80 million postal cards have been sent. across the nation, millions have not yet been returned: in Florida there is no more time to return them, they must be deposited at the polls.
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Understanding the wind
In the night, however, there will be signs to understand the “wind”: will they come from counties that close early, like Bracken in Kentucky or Scioto in Ohio, where Trump won in 2016. Will he attract the same number of rural votes? The answer to this question will help to understand if he can still count on that slice of the electorate that led him to victory in the Midwest.
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29 October 2020 (change October 29, 2020 | 23:22)
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