Joseph Biden has the polls for significantly more voters than Donald Trump – the race is still open
For as long as there are polls, the end of American presidential campaigns has focused on individual states. This is because the US President – similar to the German Federal President and the German Federal Chancellor – is not elected directly by the people, but by an “Electoral College” made up of voters who are sent by the individual states according to their election results. Only Nebraska and Maine split their delegates. In the rest of the states, they all belong to the winner on a first-past-the-post principle.
West coast and northeast coast firmly in the hands of the Democrats
If you take a survey lead of at least ten percentage points as a prerequisite for this, then you will find the American west coast with California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii, but also the northeast coast with New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, the capital Washington DC, Virginia and Maryland as well as the breaking bad state of New Mexico firmly in the hands of the Democrats.
The Republicans, on the other hand, can certainly count on the formerly democratically ruled southern states of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky. Also with West Virginia, which was split off from Virginia during the Civil War because of its allegiance to Republican Abraham Lincoln, the former southern Indian reservation Oklahoma and the prairie and mountain states of Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming and Idaho.
Not entirely sure and entirely unsure
South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Utah, Montana and Alaska are considered to be not entirely certain, but with a five point lead over the Republicans. The current polls for the gambling and divorce state of Nevada, the South Park state of Colorado, Minnesota and New Hampshire tend to favor the Democrats.
This leaves Florida, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa as states with relatively open results. They are also of particular importance because seven of them are very populous and therefore have many electors in Electoral College.
180 electors open
Many of the Democratic strongholds are also populous states with large numbers of voters. According to the figures from Real Clear Politics and the Cook Political Report, Biden can therefore count on a relatively safe base of 203 voters in Electoral College. Another 30 trending states are considered likely. For a majority of 269 votes, this calculation still lacks 36 from the pool of 180 electorates from states with an open result.
Incumbent Trump, on the other hand, can only rely on 77 certain and 48 likely electors because the clearly republican states are less populous. He has therefore by no means lost the election – because he, too, can access the reservoir of 180 voters from those states in which he is now likely to intensify his election campaign efforts.
The martial metaphor is better
The Democrats are likely to do the same, which is why the expression “Battleground States” fits better for these states than the Anglicism “Swing States”, which is preferred in some German media as “less martial” and in this country more reminiscent of light music “). It suggests that these are federal states that alternately tend towards one and then the other party. In fact, however, the field of states with an open result is reassembled with each election – and some states are only battlefield states for a very brief period. Many southern states, for example, which elected the Democrats from the Civil War into the 1970s, turned to the Republicans under Ronald Reagan and stayed there.
In addition, the metaphor of the battlefield also appears appropriate in view of the (also metaphorical) guns that the parties and partisans bring up there. The Fox News star host Tucker Carlson, who supports Trump, compared the current actions of the Democrats yesterday with the Iraq war, for example: In his perception, American politicians exploited violent groups there, over which they then lost control. Something similar happened in his perception with the Democratic Party and the groups that now burned down numerous buildings in Kenosha and shot and killed a Trump supporter in Portland, whose death they then cheered.
Carlson believes that Joseph Biden distanced himself from all violence yesterday, largely because he fell significantly behind in the polls. The most obvious crash did not take place after Kenosha, but immediately after the Democratic candidate named Kamala Harris as his vice-president. The fact that she is less well received by voters than the often confused old man who many Americans do not believe in harm was already shown by the development of the polls during the primaries.
The former California attorney general, courted by the leading media, got off to a relatively good start there, but crashed after her rival Tulsi Gabbard made public that Harris put 1,500 people in jail for violating marijuana laws (and then laughed when asked if she would ever Smoking marijuana), that they withheld evidence that would save an innocent person from execution until forced to do so, and that they used inmates as cheap labor for the state of California and kept them in prison longer than their sentences lasted.
Harris did not deny this and later appeared remarkably arrogant in a one-on-one interview with CNN presenter Anderson Cooper when she said that as an “obvious top-class candidate” one had to expect “blows” from applicants who were “at zero or one percent or wherever always it may be “lie. In addition, Gabbard has spoken to Bashar al-Assad before and does not condemn him sufficiently (see Trump gives the Pentagon 30 days to present a plan to combat IS). Therefore, they do not take the attack very seriously and will “just carry on” (cf. “[Kamala Harris] put 1,500 people in jail for violating marijuana laws …).
She later justified her attempt to indirectly denigrate Biden as a racist through a contact guilt with a deceased democratic politician by saying that it was politics. In such a context, her explicit insistence on being black does not seem entirely free of calculation: after all, the daughter of a biology professor from the Indian upper-class Brahmin and a Jamaican economics professor who taught at Stanford and whose ancestors kept slaves grew up under circumstances that with those of American blacks from shabby parts Baltimores or Detroits shouldn’t have much in common. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why black voters say in polls that voting in favor of Harris reduces their willingness to vote for Biden in November.