In February 2020, the populist escaped impeachment after his acquittal by the Senate, then predominantly republican, in the “Ukrainian affair”. He was prosecuted for having tried to extort from his Kiev counterpart, Volodymyr Zelinsky, revelations likely to torpedo his Democratic rival Joe Biden.
This time, he is being prosecuted for “incitement to insurgency” and the evidence is overwhelming: on January 6, he encouraged his supporters gathered in Washington to march on the Capitol building, where Congress was to confirm the victory definitively. of Biden in the presidential election. The attack on the building resulted in five deaths.
What is the use of judging Trump after he left the White House?
In fact, the former President can no longer be dismissed. Withdrawn in his Florida residence, Trump, 74, on Thursday rejected an invitation to speak at the trial. His defense argues that he has become a private citizen again and that, therefore, the procedure is illegal. There is, however, a precedent: in 1876, Minister of War William Belknap was tried (and acquitted) even though he had resigned.
Democrats argue that this is a trial for the law and for history: to leave unpunished this attack on the Constitution, by the one who had taken an oath to protect it, would undermine democracy.
Is Trump already acquitted?
Except huge turnaround, yes. To condemn it, the votes of 67 senators out of 100 would be needed. However, during a procedural vote, ten days ago, only five moderate Republicans joined the fifty Democrats.
This shows the influence that Trump continues to exercise over his party. Although defeated in the presidential election, he voted over 74 million voters to the polls, helping many conservative parliamentarians to save their seats. They will need his ability to raise funds during the midterm elections in November 2022.
So Trump will survive politically?
This is the challenge of the moment. Convicted, Trump would be banned from elections for life, therefore excluded from the 2024 presidential election. Acquitted, he would not yet be out of the woods: the question of his ban could come back to Congress in the form of a motion of censure , which does not require a two-thirds majority. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine (Virginia) and Republican moderate Susan Collins (Maine) have already surveyed the field.
The 14the Amendment of the Constitution prohibits anyone who has engaged in an act of rebellion or insurrection from exercising a federal mandate. If Trump were found guilty by a simple majority, only a two-thirds vote in each of the two houses of Congress could rehabilitate him.
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