The Labor Market Index (WRP) – informing in advance about future changes in the level of unemployment – increased by 1 point in June 2020, the Office of Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC) said. Analysts expect that an increase in the unemployment rate stronger than indicated by current official data (registered unemployment rate – 6%) should be taken into account and indicate that the scale and sustainability of changes in the labor market can be assessed at the earliest in autumn.
“It is too early to fully estimate the effects of freezing economic activity on the labor market. It usually reacts with a considerable delay compared to changes in the activity of the entire economy. To date, many companies cannot assess the scale of demand reduction for their goods and services and the rate at which this demand will recover. At the same time, entrepreneurs have fresh memories of finding employees in the pre-pandemic period. Therefore, they probably remain very reticent in dismissing employees, and formulate their employment plans on an ongoing basis and as flexible as the provisions of labor law allow “- we read in the report.
Unemployment in Poland in 2020 through a pandemic
Analysts emphasize that companies have slightly reduced their plans to lay off employee plans for estimates a month ago, there is still an advantage of the percentage of companies declaring layoffs over those who intend to increase employment in the near future.
“At the same time, there was a slight increase in the number of job vacancies arriving at poviat labor offices, which is largely the result of a gradual restoration of their activities. However, this was a slight improvement compared to the sharp decline in March and April this year. ” – we read further.
The material estimated that changes in the labor market were not rapid and it is in a suspended state, which prevailed among employers, labor offices and employees, probably by the end of the summer holidays.
“Workers seeking work probably also limited their activity and largely remained at home. Some found employment in the services sector, for which demand increased during the pandemic, e.g., in courier services, shipping companies, in services and production around medical or in the shadow economy. ” – we read in the report.