Unemployment data is surprising and does not reflect the wishes of the Fed.. and the markets are moving By Investing.com

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Investing.com – Some important data has now been released that should give an overview of the outlook, as weekly unemployment data now missed expectations.

Today’s data reflects a different view of the Fed’s vision, which desires a weak labor market and greater unemployment to achieve a soft recession and then lower inflation, as applications for unemployment benefits decreased, i.e. they came less than the market’s expectations, and less than the week before last.

The markets reacted to the unemployment data, as it has now trimmed its gains, but has not turned into losses. On the other hand, it trimmed its losses, and after it was low before the data was released, it turned into slight gains after the data was released.

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Unemployment data

It recorded 190,000 applications, less than the forecast of experts, who expected 214,000. Especially since it had recorded 205 thousand the week before last.

Thus, it decreased in 4 weeks to 206 thousand, after it recorded the week before last 212.5 thousand.

This weekly indicator provides very timely data, identifies the amount of individuals who claimed unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week and traders view the unemployment rate as an indicator that gives a simple indication of the future performance of the economy. The two downtrends have a positive effect on the country’s currency, as working people tend to spend more money.

Federal remarks

Member Patrick Harker said on Wednesday that the US Federal Reserve may intend to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points several times throughout 2023.

Harker also predicts that the interest rate will be sufficiently constrained at some point; So that the US Federal Reserve keeps the interest rate in place to allow monetary policy to do its work.

And the US Federal Reserve member stated that the bank’s goal revolves around slowing the US economy modestly while making demand more in line with supply, while Harker does not expect a recession, but he believes that the gross domestic product will witness real growth of nearly 1% this year, and it is also likely to grow. Output by about 2% in 2024 and 2025.

Gold and the dollar now

The US dollar rose during the current moments, at levels near $1910 an ounce, up by 0.3%.

On the other hand, futures contracts for the yellow metal rose strongly during these moments of today’s trading, equivalent to 0.2%, up to levels near $1911 an ounce.

The dollar now interacted with the unemployment data just released, and now recorded 102.1 levels, up by 0.1%, after it was in a bearish range before the data was released.

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