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To accelerate inflation Annual CPI in cities in Egypt At a higher than expected rate of 13.6% yoy in July from 13.2% in June and on a monthly basis, core inflation increased by 1.3%, compared to a decline of 0.1% in June.
Year-on-year core inflation jumped to 15.6% from 14.6% in June. The core inflation rate excludes volatile commodities such as food, according to government data.
And I have Central Bank of Egypt An inflation target of between five and nine percent, but said in June it would allow for a higher level beyond the fourth quarter.
lost Egyptian pound Since March 2022, about 22% of its value against the dollar, after the Central Bank cut the exchange rate by about 14% on March 21 and the Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates by 300 basis points during the May and March meetings, bringing the overnight deposit rate now to 11.25% and the overnight lending rate is 12.25%, while the main transaction rate and discount rate are 11.75 %.
For his part, said Muhammad Abu Basha, chief economist of EFG Hermes “Sky News Arabia Economy”Expectations indicate that the Central Bank of Egypt will raise rates Benefit The main reason for this has been the recent increase in the prices of petroleum products and the drop in the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar.
Arab Trader Company executive director Ahmed Ayyad told Sky News Arabia that Egypt’s central bank will raise interest rates at a rapid pace, up to 2%, and attributed this to a group of internal and external factors.
He explained that the internal factors lie in the sharp increase in inflation last month and the possibility of it increasing further in the next period, which came in conjunction with the increase in the price of fuel, as well as the drop in the exchange rate of the pound. .
As for external factors, Arab Trader Company CEO Ahmed Ayyad believes that the rate hikes of the world’s leading central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, with the continued tightening of monetary policy until the end of the year, have exerted pressure. on emerging markets.
He pointed out that the significant increase in interest rates in Egypt will be an incentive to attract investments, which have largely come out of Egypt with over $ 20 billion since the onset of monetary tightening by major central banks.
For his part, the Chief Executive Officer of the Board of Directors “Three-way securities firm”Rania Yacoub for “Sky News Arabia Economy” The Central Bank of Egypt will raise interest rates at its next meeting between 1 and 1.5%.
He attributed this to the high rates inflation On an annual and monthly basis, following the Egyptian government’s decision to raise fuel prices, which was reflected in a rise in commodity prices, as well as the repercussions of the global inflationary crisis, which still casts a shadow on the Egyptian economy .
In a related context, the financial intermediary approved on the Egyptian stock exchange, Mohamed Mahdi Abdel Nabi, confirmed to Sky News Arabia that next Thursday’s CBE meeting will be his big title. ” The real value of the pound” Which some research and evaluation institutes have dealt with on average between 22 and 24 pounds per US dollar “the last of which was the Credit Suisse report “He explained that the official price on Egyptian banks’ screens is around 19.15 pounds.
He stressed that the fair value of the Egyptian pound is an effective factor in attracting investments and cash flows to the country, despite the burdens deriving from the increase in interest on credit portfolios and financial charges.
Abdel-Nabi pointed out that the increase in the rate of inflation in Egyptian cities to the highest level in the last 3 years reinforces the central tendency to increase interest rates by more than 1% on the pound, which has fallen by about 1%. 23% against the dollar since the beginning of this year.
On the other hand, said Dr. Board member of Moatasem Al Shahidi “Horizon” Finance The Central Bank of Egypt will hold interest rates at the next meeting.
When asked about the reasons, he replied “Sky News Arabia Economy” The lower the frequency of the increase inflation Last month in Egypt as well as in the United States, in addition to the decline in prices of basic commodities globally, especially wheat and oil, will ease the pressure on the Egyptian balance of payments.
Al-Shahidi added that what supports his expectations is also what is stated in the statements by the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt that the monthly deficit has increased from 3.8 billion dollars to 400 million dollars, noting that the central bank had raised interest rates significantly in a proactive step at the start of the Ukrainian crisis.
A Reuters poll predicted that the Central Bank of Egypt would raise the overnight deposit rate by 50 basis points.
In a survey of 15 analysts, average expectations showed that the central bank would raise the deposit rate to 11.75% and the lending rate to 12.75% at the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.
Interestingly, the Central Bank of Egypt had kept the interest rate unchanged at its previous meeting on June 23, but raised it by 200 basis points in May, saying it seeks to contain inflation expectations.
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To accelerate inflation Annual CPI in towns in Egypt At a better than predicted price of 13.6% yoy in July from 13.2% in June and on a regular foundation, main inflation enhanced by 1.3%, in contrast to a drop of .1% in June.
Year-on-yr main inflation jumped to 15.6% from 14.6% in June. The core inflation price excludes volatile commodities these types of as food, according to federal government info.
And I have Central Lender of Egypt An inflation target of amongst 5 and 9 %, but mentioned in June it would make it possible for for a increased degree beyond the fourth quarter.
shed Egyptian pound Considering that March 2022, about 22% of its benefit from the greenback, following the Central Financial institution reduce the trade charge by about 14% on March 21 and the Central Financial institution of Egypt lifted curiosity rates by 300 basis details during the Might and March meetings, bringing the overnight deposit rate now to 11.25% and the overnight lending rate is 12.25%, when the major transaction fee and discounted price are 11.75 %.
For his section, EFG Hermes chief economist Mohamed Abu Basha told Iqtisad Sky Information Arabia: Anticipations show that the Egyptian central lender will increase rates. Advantage The principal explanation for this has been the modern enhance in the charges of petroleum products and the drop in the trade level of the pound in opposition to the dollar.
Arab Trader Business govt director Ahmed Ayyad explained to Sky Information Arabia that Egypt’s central financial institution will raise desire charges at a quick pace, up to 2%, and attributed this to a group of inside and external aspects.
He explained that the internal components lie in the sharp improve in inflation final thirty day period and the chance of it growing even more in the future interval, which arrived in conjunction with the boost in the rate of fuel, as well as the drop in the trade price of the pound. .
As for external aspects, Arab Trader Company CEO Ahmed Ayyad believes that the fee hikes of the world’s foremost central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, with the ongoing tightening of financial plan till the conclude of the yr, have exerted strain. on emerging marketplaces.
He pointed out that the major enhance in curiosity prices in Egypt will be an incentive to entice investments, which have mainly occur out of Egypt with about $ 20 billion considering the fact that the onset of financial tightening by big central banks.
For its component, the chairman of the board of directors of the “Threeway Securities Brokerage Corporation”, Rania Yacoub, predicted to “Iqtisad” Sky Information Arabia “that the Egyptian central financial institution will elevate curiosity costs in its subsequent assembly involving 1-1.5 per cent.
He attributed this to the significant costs inflation On an once-a-year and month to month basis, adhering to the Egyptian government’s final decision to increase gasoline selling prices, which was reflected in a rise in commodity rates, as very well as the repercussions of the world wide inflationary crisis, which however casts a shadow on the Egyptian economy .
In a associated context, economical middleman accredited to the Egyptian inventory trade, Mohamed Mahdi Abdel Nabi, confirmed to Sky Information Arabia that subsequent Thursday’s CBE meeting will have its big headline, “the true price of the pound,” which some analysis and valuation establishments traded on average between 22 and 24 US pounds, “the final of which was the Credit history Suisse report”, describing that the formal price tag on Egyptian banks’ screens is all around 19.15 kilos .
He pressured that the truthful value of the Egyptian pound is an helpful component in attracting investments and dollars flows to the nation, despite the burdens deriving from the enhance in desire on credit rating portfolios and financial prices.
Abdel-Nabi pointed out that the boost in the price of inflation in Egyptian towns to the optimum level in the very last 3 several years reinforces the central inclination to maximize curiosity fees by far more than 1% on the pound, which has fallen by about 1%. 23% against the dollar since the starting of this calendar year.
On the other hand, stated Dr. Moatasem Al-Shaheedy, a board member of Horizon Monetary, said the Egyptian central lender is likely to keep interest prices at its future assembly.
When requested why, he instructed “Sky News Arabia” that the decline in the amount will enhance inflation Final thirty day period in Egypt as very well as in the United States, in addition to the decrease in charges of basic commodities globally, primarily wheat and oil, will ease the pressure on the Egyptian harmony of payments.
Al-Shahidi additional that what supports his expectations is also what is said in the statements by the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt that the every month deficit has elevated from 3.8 billion dollars to 400 million bucks, noting that the central lender experienced raised desire prices drastically in a proactive action at the get started of the Ukrainian disaster.
A Reuters poll predicted that the Central Lender of Egypt would increase the overnight deposit level by 50 foundation points.
In a survey of 15 analysts, typical anticipations confirmed that the central bank would raise the deposit fee to 11.75% and the lending price to 12.75% at the frequent assembly of the Monetary Coverage Committee.
Apparently, the Central Bank of Egypt experienced stored the interest fee unchanged at its previous meeting on June 23, but raised it by 200 basis details in Might, stating it seeks to incorporate inflation anticipations.
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