Trump’s Iran Decision Looms Amid Escalating Conflict
A Critical Two-Week Window
Former US President Donald Trump is poised to make a significant decision about US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict within the coming fortnight, according to a White House announcement. The stakes are high, given ongoing negotiations and escalating tensions in the region.
During a White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt conveyed Trump‘s message: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.” Iran’s deputy foreign minister warned the BBC that US participation would ignite a regional “hell.”
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“I may do it. I may not do it.”
—Donald Trump
Since the conflict began, at least 71 people have been wounded in Israel. This follows a week of increasing violence, including strikes on infrastructure (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024).
Strategic Ambiguity and Potential Actions
Trump‘s administration has consistently favored a posture of strategic ambiguity regarding the conflict, revealing few details of its considerations or potential actions. On Thursday, he responded via Truth Social, stating that reports in the Wall Street Journal were inaccurate regarding his views on Iran. He refrained from clarifying whether plans had been authorized.
Intelligence reports suggest Trump believes Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon, and he has previously dismissed contrary assessments. Speculation increased after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rebuffed his demand for surrender. Reports suggest the former president is considering strikes on the Fordo uranium enrichment facility.
Diplomatic efforts continue, with European foreign ministers set to meet their Iranian counterpart in Switzerland. The deputy foreign minister of Iran, Saeed Khatibzadeh, stated that diplomacy is preferred but that negotiations are impossible during active bombardment.
