Arsenal have a great chance to lift the trophy
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Tottenham sit two places above Arsenal in the Premier League table, having played one game less.
They also won the most recent meeting between the two sides, with José Mourinho’s men securing a 2-0 victory in December.
Despite that, it’s the Gunners who have had the best chance of succeeding in the Europa League thanks to high-profile data analysts FiveThirtyEight.
The American analytics company was created by influential statistician Nate Silver, and his latest ‘Soccer Club Predictions’ give Mikel Arteta’s team a significant shot at glory in Europe this season.
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They make Arsenal the second favorite for the trophy, with a 14% chance of victory. That’s three spots ahead of the Spurs, who are 10%.
The overwhelming favorites are Manchester United, with Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s side with 23% winning the tournament.
Arsenal are expected to knock out Olympiakos in the next round, with a 69% chance of progression. From there, it’s 43% to reach the semi-finals and 26% to reach the final.
Meanwhile, Tottenham also have a 69% chance of winning their round of 16 tie against Dinamo Zagreb. After that, it’s 39% to win their quarterfinals and 21% to reach the final.
At the national level, a less rosy picture is being painted. With Tottenham and Arsenal in eighth and 10th respectively, neither team has much hope of securing a spot in the top four.
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Arteta’s team has a 5% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and for Mourinho’s team it is 13%.
West Ham currently ranks fourth in the Premier League behind Manchester City, Manchester United and Leicester, but ranks sixth on the FiveThirtyEight list with a 25% chance of finishing in the Champions League places.
They predict that the top four will be City first, United second, Liverpool third and Leicester fourth.
In other news, Report: West Ham plans a summer play for a 16-goal striker after January’s £ 9 million offer
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