Executive Summary: The Shifting Sino-Russian Relationship
This report analyzes the evolving dynamic between China and Russia as 2022, examining the impact of a weakening Russia on their political, economic, and military relationship, notably in regions like the Arctic and central Asia. It assesses the potential benefits for China,the vulnerabilities of Russia,and the implications for their bilateral ties.
Here’s a breakdown of key findings:
* growing Chinese Leverage: Russia’s increasing reliance on China for economic support, war resources, technological advancement, countering isolation, and promoting anti-Western narratives is significantly increasing China’s influence over Russia’s economy, politics, and society. This leverage allows China potential opportunities to exert pressure and seek concessions.
* Economic Implications: china is positioned to secure more favorable terms in economic dealings with Russia, including deeper discounts on energy exports. Russia may further embrace the use of the Yuan, supporting China’s efforts to internationalize its currency. China will likely pursue greater market access in Russia and potential involvement in strategic infrastructure projects.
* Diplomatic Shifts: While currently exercising restraint, China is gaining diplomatic ground. Russia is offering increased support for China’s positions, particularly regarding its “core interests.” China may seek stronger backing from Russia in international forums, concerning NATO, and in regional disputes, though it will likely avoid actions that jeopardize the overall partnership.
* Military and Defense Cooperation: china could seek access to Russian military technologies, operational experience, intelligence, and even access to Russian overseas bases. It may also request assistance in the event of escalation concerning Taiwan.
* Global and Regional Influence: China aims to align Russia more closely with its global positions and prioritize its interests. In Central Asia, this translates to expanding Chinese economic and security influence, perhaps at the expense of Russia-led organizations.
* Arctic Dynamics: Despite russia’s continued strength in the Arctic, its isolation from other Arctic states creates opportunities for China. Russia will likely maintain certain boundaries, but may be compelled to except greater Chinese involvement in areas like governance, mining, and maritime security.
* Policy Implications for Europe: European policymakers should avoid assuming the continued stability of the Sino-Russian partnership. The growing power imbalance creates the potential for unmanageable tensions and a breakdown in their relationship. Preparation for this possibility is crucial.
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