Original title: Tianfeng Securities: Haidilao (06862) accelerates expansion to help release performance, maintains “Buy” rating
Tianfeng SecuritiesPublishresearch reportSaid,Haidilao(06862) Occupy the high-quality hot pot track, people-orientedQuality serviceEnhance brand premium, unique management model effectively maintain a high level of operating efficiency, stable and efficientsupply chainEnsure the profitability of expansion.the companyAccelerate expansion, release production capacity when stores mature, and maintain a “buy” rating.
On February 1, 2021, the company issued a profit warningannouncement
The company forecasts 2020Net profitIt is expected to be 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 90%. 2020H2Net profitIt is expected to be 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.42%, and the rate of decline has improved significantly compared with the first half of the year. 2020H1/H2 netprofitThey were -96.5 billion yuan/1.199 billion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate was -205.74%/16.42%. Excluding the exchange loss of 235 million yuan, the net profit for 2020 is expected to reach 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 79.99%.
Actively adjust business strategies to quickly respond to market changes, improve operational efficiency and control costs
Due to the large-scale outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2019, countries and regions around the world have introduced epidemic prevention measures to restrict consumption places, and the company’s operations have been significantly affected.In addition, the company’sRenminbiExchange rate wavemovable propertyThe net exchange loss was about 235 million yuan, most of which were unrealized exchange losses. In the face of a complex market environment, the company actively resumed work and production in response to the epidemic, and adjusted business strategies to reduce negative impacts. At the same time, the company improved operating efficiency, reduced rental costs, and optimized operating capital management to ensure stable cash flow.
Accelerate the construction of the catering network under the epidemic, and step into the opening of the store to help the harvest periodPerformancefreed
HaidilaoSingle storeThe model is mature and easy to copy,Related partyallindustryThe chain layout improves the level of standardization; the company does not change the long-term expansion trend, and continues to promote the sinking of stores. It is estimated that the store ceiling is 3000+.according toCompany AnnouncementAnd narrow-door meal eye data, 18-20 yearsHaidilaoThere were 193, 302, and 368 net stores, and the number of stores exceeded 1,100 by the end of the year; the number of stores opened in January-February 21 reached 99, and the leasing conditions for suitable store locations were optimized, and the 21-year scale expansion was accelerated. It is expected that after 21 years of store maturity, it will help release performance.
The brand’s own traffic increases the bargaining power, and the high turnover rate further reduces rental costs
The strong brand influence makes Haidilao no longer need to rely on shopping malls or locations to attract traffic, but it brings popularity to the business district. Moreover, Haidilao has larger stores, making it easier to obtain rental discounts. Affected by the epidemic, many places have introduced preferential policies for property rent reduction and exemption to further reduce operating costs. Haidilao has ample passenger flow, multiple consumption scenarios, and long business hours, resulting in a higher turnover rate, which helps to improve store floor efficiency and reduce the proportion of rental costs.Haidilao rental costs accounted forOperating incomeThe proportion is on a downward trend. In 2018, it was 4.04%, which was 6.22pct lower than the industry average of 10.26%; 2021H1 rental costs accounted for 4.87%. Benefiting from the exquisite and attentive service, Haidilao has maintained a high rate of overturning in recent years; from 2015 to 2019, Haidilao’s overall overturning rate has remained above 4.
Provide high-quality services to create brand advantages and core competition barriers, optimize customer experience and increase per capita consumption
Under the management philosophy of “living benefits and locking up management”, Haidilao adopts a bottom-up development strategy, maintaining a unified goal for all employees, and fully stimulating the enthusiasm of employees. “Recommendation System” and “Internal selectionRecruitment and selection systems such as “system” open a stepped talent promotion channel, “mentorship system” and “rotation system” fully empower employees; the salary system effectively motivates store managers, and the headquarters has flexible assessments to control risks. Haidilao continues to improve overall service , The per capita consumption of customers increased from 100.3 yuan in 2018H1 to 112.8 yuan in 2020H1; high consumption in domestic first-tier cities has pushed up the overall level.
Haidilao occupies the high-quality hot pot track, people-oriented high-quality services increase brand premium, unique management model effectively maintains a high level of operating efficiency, and a stable and efficient supply chain guarantees expansion profitability. 1) Humanized service: The company adheres to the concept of “service first, customer first”, provides value-added services to create a smart restaurant, and forms the brand impression of “hot pot = Haidilao”. The brand’s own traffic enjoys low rental costs. 2) Effective internal management: The salary incentives of the apprenticeship system enhance employee self-drive, ensure service consistency, and maintain efficient operation. 3) Efficient supply chain:AffiliatesFull layoutIndustry chain, Ensure the quality of food ingredients and timely delivery, and support rapid expansion. The company accelerates its expansion and releases production capacity when the store matures.Tianfeng SecuritiesIncrease the company’s 2021-2022 net profit forecast from 4.98 billion yuan/667 billion yuan to 5.10 billion yuan/723 billion yuan; the corresponding PEs are 58X/41XPE respectively; the “buy” rating is maintained.
risk warning: The epidemic has not recovered as expected; food safety risks; the risk of store expansion not meeting expectations;Raw materialspriceThe risk of rising; the performance forecast is a preliminary calculation result, subject to the data disclosed in the annual report
(Source: Zhitong Finance Network)
(Editor in charge: DF532)
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