Thunderstorms Loom as Benelux Faces Shifting Weather

Intense Heat and Unstable Air Expected This Weekend

The Benelux region is bracing for a significant shift in weather, with warmer air pushing in this Friday and Saturday, bringing with it an increased risk of thunderstorms and a rise in humidity. This unstable pattern is set to continue into Sunday, introducing more changeable conditions.

Atmospheric Instability Builds

A period of warmer air will flow into the Benelux region on Friday and Saturday, following a weak heat front moving northeast. This front, associated with a low-pressure system between Iceland and the British Isles, will usher in warmer air by Friday evening.

By Saturday, a thermal low-pressure system developing over France is expected to move towards the Benelux. This system will contribute to increased instability, particularly along the French border, with a weak heat front followed by a cold front and an unstable thermal trough. The afternoon and evening are anticipated to see a rise in thunderstorm activity as a result.

Saturday: A Day of Contrasts

Saturday’s weather will feature varied cloud cover. Early in the day, western Belgium and the French border area might experience some rain or drizzle. Elsewhere, conditions are expected to be dry with high clouds.

As the day progresses, a heat front may bring increased medium and high cloud cover, with a possibility of light rain. This activity will primarily affect Belgium before moving north. Behind this system, skies may clear, but cumulus clouds are expected to build from the southwest, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the French border.

These showers are predicted to spread across Belgium and into the Netherlands during the evening. Temperatures could reach summer highs between 26 and 31°C, with the eastern regions and Limburg potentially experiencing tropical warmth. Increased humidity will make the air feel more sultry.

Localized Intense Showers and Thunderstorms

The forecast indicates localized downpours, with the potential for brief heavy rain and wind gusts of up to 50-70 km/h. Some showers may be accompanied by thunderstorms and, in isolated instances, hail. While severe conditions are not widely anticipated due to limited atmospheric dynamics and wind shear, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values are expected to be temporarily high in the thermal trough.

According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), thunderstorms can produce intense rainfall over short periods, which can lead to localized flooding.

Unstable Conditions to Persist

By Sunday night, the low-pressure system is expected to move further north towards the Netherlands, with a frontal wave bringing some instability across Belgium. Sunday itself will see unstable air from the southwest ahead of a cold front.

This front marks a transition to milder, more changeable sea air. These systems are linked to a deepening low-pressure area from the Atlantic, influenced by a strong jet streak. Early next week, the region will likely experience unstable and milder oceanic air, with frequent showers and gradually cooler temperatures.