Thoughts: Putin can sacrifice Shoigu

Night to Thursday writes the American tankesmia Institute for the Study of War that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to make Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu a scapegoat for the challenges associated with the ongoing mobilization in Russia.

Tankesmia refers to Putin stating that the Ministry of Defense did not make the necessary legal adjustments in time and writes the following:

“That kind of direct criticism of the Defense Ministry is also an indirect criticism of Sjojgu. Apparently Putin is willing to let Shoigu take on the mistakes related to his own invasion of Ukraine.”

In addition, they write the following:

“Probably, Putin will wait to fire Shoigu until he feels he can continue to blame him for the ongoing military missteps. Sjojgu’s possible replacement will also have to take responsibility for the mistakes he made.”

COURSE MODIFIED: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says HIMARS is changing the course of the war against Russia. Video: AP / Reuters / Twitter / Dagbladet TV. Reporter: Vegard Krüger.
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Promoted Kadyrov

Tankesmia writes that Putin has already begun to work to build support among nationalist military bloggers and leaders of private military forces, such as Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Kadyrov, who recently urged Putin to use so-called tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, said Wednesday that he was promoted to colonel general by Putin.

“Putin may have decided to promote Kadyrov to maintain support for him and the Chechen military forces and at the same time reach out to Defense and Defense Minister Shoigu, from whom Putin seems to want to distance himself,” writes ISW.

IN TEARS: Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov appears to be in tears during Putin’s speech, September 30, 2022. Video: Kremlin / Twitter. Reporter: Vegard Krüger
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The offensive linen

Furthermore, the think tank claims that Ukrainian forces captured the Luhansk region on Wednesday and that a new lightning offensive is now underway.

“The terrain in the western parts of Luhansk is suited to the kind of rapid warfare that Ukrainian forces actually waged in the eastern parts of the Kharkiv region in early September. At the same time, there is no information from open sources indicating that Russian forces have significantly strengthened their positions in the western parts of Luhansk, “writes the think tank in one of its daily war reports and continues:

“Ukraine’s ongoing offensives in the northeastern and southern parts of the country are likely to force the Kremlin to prioritize defending one area at the expense of the other, potentially increasing Ukraine’s risk of success in both. “.

Ukraine’s lightning-fast offensive in the Kharkiv region stunned experts and humiliated the Putin regime. Among other things, it is considered one of the triggering reasons why the Russian president ordered a partial mobilization.

A new lightning offensive in Luhansk could potentially be even more humiliating for Russia. This is because Russia annexed the region in question only last week. In addition, Russia annexed Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya.

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