This is the culprit of the US dollar, almost Rp. 15,100, get ready for the worst case scenario!


The US dollar (US) exchange rate continued to strengthen, putting pressure on the rupee. Now the US dollar exchange rate has almost touched the Rp level. 15,100.

According to RTI trading data, on Monday (9/26/2022), the US dollar exchange rate reached Rp. 15,060 at the close of trading. On a daily basis, the dollar exchange rate strengthened by 0.86%.

Today the US dollar exchange rate is the lowest at the Rp level. 14,931. Meanwhile, the high point reached Rp 15,097, only less than Rp 3 to hit the Rp 15,100 level.


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So what is the cause of the strengthening of the US dollar against the rupee?

DCFX Futures analyst Lukman Leong revealed that the US central bank’s rising interest rates The Federal Reserve was the culprit in the strengthening of the dollar, Uncle Sam’s currency was increasingly profitable in value with rising prices. interest rates. In addition, the yield on US two-year bonds also rose to 4.3%.

“Growing expectations of the Fed’s policy of raising interest rates strengthened the US dollar this week. With the US two-year bond yield reaching 4.3%,” Lukman told detikcom.

In addition to making the US dollar more attractive, Lukman assessed that the US Fed’s aggressive policy also heightened fears of a recession that caused investors to release risky assets and currencies and chase the US dollar.

Worst scenario

Lukman added that the pressure on the Rupee will persist for the foreseeable future. In addition, there are inflation expectations in Indonesia and Bank Indonesia (BI) interest rate is slowly rising.

“These things cause investors to release rupees and government bonds as well,” said Lukman.

The worst-case scenario, according to Lukman, is that if BI does not respond with aggressive interest rate hikes and interventions, the short-term dollar exchange rate will continue to strengthen against the rupee at the level of Rp 15,300-15,500. Meanwhile, for the medium term to the end of the year, it will be at Ro 15,800-16,000.

On the other hand, Permata bank economist Josua Pardede also agreed that the strengthening of the US dollar is due to the increase in interest rates by the Fed. Indeed, it is not just the rupee, according to him the US dollar will continue to strengthen against other world currencies.

“The strengthening of the US dollar against world currencies, including the Rupee, is influenced by the sentiment towards the Fed’s interest rate direction, which is estimated to raise interest rates by 4.25-4.5% by the end of this year, “Josua told detikcom.

The impact of the weaker Pound on the next page. Direct click

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