If it wishes, Russia has many military options to strike Ukraine. Conversely, the United States and the Europeans have a wide range of economic sanctions to respond to. We still have to agree on them. This is the focus of ongoing consultations between capitals, as another intense streak looms in an attempt to avert the worst.
“Diplomacy is not dead”, we are assured on the American side. The Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, spoke on Tuesday January 18 with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. The two men will meet in Geneva on January 21, with Moscow awaiting a formal response to its treaty offers on strategic security in Europe and NATO enlargement. Previously, Mr. Blinken will be in Kiev on Wednesday to reassure the Ukrainian authorities of American support, then in Berlin on Thursday. The position of the new German coalition on the sanctions – and in particular on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, long presented as an exclusively commercial project, without geopolitical dimension – is an essential issue for the United States.
Washington is pursuing its diplomatic strategy initiated since November 2021, when the Biden administration had warned upstream of Russian military mobilization on Ukraine’s borders. And no sign of de-escalation is emerging, quite the contrary. Russian troops and equipment have started to be transferred to Belarus, officially for a joint military exercise, of a defensive nature, scheduled for February 10-22. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin cited the shipment of twelve Sukhoi Su-35 fighters, two S-400 air defense systems and a Pantsir missile battery. “This is neither a drill nor a normal troop movement,” explains an official of the American State Department, judging this “show of force” extremely dangerous. The other concern, in the medium term, concerns the deployment of Russian conventional and nuclear weapons in Belarus, thanks to a constitutional reform in February.
“Extremely dangerous situation”
Washington has warned against the possible creation of a false pretext, by Russia, to justify an operation in Ukraine in the coming weeks. “We are at a stage where Russia can launch an attack in Ukraine at any time”, said White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki, speaking of a “extremely dangerous situation”. The United States is increasing contacts with the allies, so as not to appear locked in a one-on-one with Moscow. American officials repeat the same formula: “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about Europe without the Europeans. » In a note published on January 10, the Biden administration had summarized all the international talks recently organized on the Russian file, by the president himself, his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Antony Blinken and the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. The number makes sense, but does not say everything.
You have 56.05% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.
–
