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Financial market forecasts are the private opinions of their authors. The current analysis is not intended to be a guide to trading. ForkLog is not responsible for the results of work that may arise when using trading recommendations from the presented reviews.
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A trader talks about the current market situation Ilya Meshcheryakov.
Yesterday was far from the most successful day for the first cryptocurrency – from its global highs, the price fell by almost $ 1000. This is not just the largest daily decline in recent months, but, in principle, the deepest fall within the trend that began on October 8 from the moment the global triangle was broken.
Today, bitcoin and the entire market also began with a decline, it even temporarily succumbed to the psychological mark of $ 13,000. The cryptocurrency market is heavily pressured by changes in investor behavior – the March flashbacks caused active sales not only on stock exchanges, but also on the oil market, where the second day in a row, 5% in the red.
The upward trend in October (the beginning is marked with a green arrow) with yesterday’s red correction. Hourly schedule BTC / USDT from TradingView.
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This is the point I have been trying to convey in the last few reviews: no matter how strong BTC is here and now, it still has to “look back at the explosions” behind it. Bitcoin is not a Hollywood actor, but a real market asset, subject to the laws of supply and demand.
From a statistical point of view, BTC rarely reverts to a medium-term uptrend after a significant fall, it is more inclined to move in an accumulation-momentum format. However, buyers are still showing activity around $ 13,000, and one should not forget about the strong support zone of $ 12,700- $ 12,800, which made it possible to take the maximum of this year.
Technically, everything, like last time, will be decided near the $ 12 800 marks – its breakdown means not only triggering of stop orders and liquidation of buyers, but also activation of sellers. At the same time, even in the case of a sharply negative scenario, BTC can be held in the price channel before falling, since rather large positions were previously gained.
Local support area (highlighted in blue) with high buying activity. Hourly schedule BTC / USDT from TradingView.
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Altcoins feel bad, there is a strong impression that there is nowhere to get capital for new price peaks, the dominance of BTC is firmly entrenched above 62% and continues to rise. They are often noticed during periods of flat or slight decline in bitcoin, so a slight increase can still be seen.
What do we have in the bottom line? Structural problems are growing, investor behavior is not changing in favor of risky assets, and the markets adjacent to bitcoin during the crisis periods (stock indices, oil) accelerated the decline. Technically important marks are still stable, but this may change at any time, therefore, short-term trading operations with risk limits are still the priority strategy.
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