The threat is that inflation will hurt the mortgage to a ten-year high. NB u this msc probably in most years since 1997

Mortgages v hand hello and they will continue to do so. In the Czech National Bank after the publication of August inflation last week there was a small alarm. It really doesn’t happen often inflation she baked here, which one NB forecasts, by a full percentage point. But that was the first time it happened.
NB in its current forecast, it assumed that in August the high-term growth will increase
spotebitelskch prices value of 3.1 percent, in fact the bag was 4.1 percent. In a certain alarm, the bag is not just NBbut the whole market. Not even any of the thorns, both Czech and international, such as banks, funds and other financial institutions did not expect so drastically inflation.

But it’s called. If these generally inflation nepjemn zaskoila the bank’s central office so much so that it is time to talk about a small alarm, then the value of the cores inflation spout alarm with vm vudy. I’m really alarming her. For August at 4.8 percent. It is thus the highest since the 90s (see Graf 1 ne). Pitom obecn inflation the one with the current value of 4.1 percent is the highest in the last tin years.

Only during the implementation of the policy that he is responsible for
NB, it ‘s the first punch inflationon which the son-in-law is placed. This is in contrast to the general inflation oitna o tradin kolsavj items such as food prices or energy prices. In other words, she is the first inflation jdrov, that is
inflation stable consumer skin items, which now shows the highest value since the 90s. And then the whole thing is called, or it means that it is like this high inflation me so more stable. First, because it calculates the state on stable, less fluctuating items.

If it will be high jdrov inflation and about five percent lasts a long time, gets into the eyes of people and companies in the Czech Republic and so is reflected in wage negotiations. It is not so easy to cat that this is a temporary impact of the pandemic. As soon as the inflation of people and companies increases significantly, and as soon as the relatively stable growth rate of consumer prices passes into wage negotiations, NB big sweat. This is due to the fact that the acute threat that it will not be possible to inflation alone, the so-called anchored. So e inflation ultimately from its inflation rate, set at two percent, and NB tm pestane fulfill his konn mandt.

So it’s especially an alarming level of August cores inflation, which in those weeks and months is urging the Czech National Bank to tighten its monetary policy in a long-unrecognized way. So that the inflan will be tamed as much as possible (70 percent inflation let’s find out, as he recently said in a television interview with the author of the text, the governor NB Ji Rusnok, and dovenou inflac NB tko nco zme). It is probably also the fact that at the monetary policy meeting at the end of the NB base rate by 0.5 percentage point. Last time so vigorously NB raised the base rate before a quarter of a century, in June 1997, during the then crisis.

On the wake of August inflation and expected rapid steps NB
u vera the market reacted quickly. He edited his eve first regarding the tightening of monetary screws NB. According to the current market segments, there will be a number of stocks in five twelve cities years rates esk central bank
from now 0.75 percent to 2.25 and 2.5 percent. At the same time, as soon as the market went on, it was clear that it would only be up to two to 2.25 percent (see Graf 2 ne).

If the stock NB rate got to 2.5 percent, as now the new market, and there it hit some time, among other noticeable
hello mortgages. When was the last year of foundation?
NB rate for a long time at 2.5 percent, in 2006 and 2007, it fluctuated averaged years rate hypotk in R in psm from about you to 4.4 percent. Now the average rate hypotk and piblin 2.3 percent. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that first and for public reasons inflation hello mortgages v R in five twelve months on average and by two percentage points. This would mean a fundamental deterioration in the availability of own funding living. And so a problem for those who now fulfill theirs mortgage so-called blood.

The market now mn, e zkladn NB rate the rise is no earlier than the first twelve-horizon horizon and then will decline again. With that, the pressure on would stop zdraovn hypotk. Only if NB failed to tame with a sharp increase in the basic rate of inflation and it would be reflected in wage negotiations, the threat of permanent inflation. In addition, I am currently supported by the public debate on the EU’s climate package, Fit for 55, which strengthens people’s belief that green patent and steps such as the onset of electromobility will be costly and will inevitably have a detrimental effect on the money of their citizens. If they are expensive, they will be inflan.

Just give you a ride Nmeckawhich is at the forefront of greenery efforts Of Europe a dosaen vytyenho cle uhlkov
neutrality do year 2050… V Germany
inflation it is not weak at all, not in R, it even reaches almost thirty-year highs there. You electina is you in Germany nejra v djinch.

Inflation in the Czech Republic this year the jet accelerated, if equal to five percent, and also gains according to the pace of the first in Germany and elsewhere in the EU. The impetus to its solution contributes, among other things, to a rise in prices
natural gaswhich is related to the pursuit of greenery Europe. Wholesale price
gas has risen by 200 percent in the EU this year, to record (see Graph 3 no). Drah
gas healthy choose, or it is made first from it. And so of course from uhl. That’s right healthy, as a nhraka gas… K vrob election With uhl is you emission allowances, also their price years up, at a historically record level. U significantly exceeds 60 eur for each. This autumn and winter energy gas i electina hello
domcnostem v EU, i tm eskm, at 25 procent.

The record is so c Britnii (bl kivka). (source: Bloomberg) In addition to this year in Europe mlo blown, also vtrn
electric they only made quite a few election, is another reason for rising prices
energy in the EU, the fact that Gazprom has reduced its supplies gas. This year in the first half of the year were clearly not in the same period of 2018 or 2019.
As a result is that you in Ireland in recent days threatened blackout. In other words, the Kremlin Europe skpnul. And now it will be very happy for the fast full operation of Nord Stream 2, which was completed just in good time to complete, so the Kremlin could not even ask. The bottom of the gas pipeline will therefore be as smooth and undisturbed as you wish in Moscow. The rest rusk President Vladimir Putin immediately hastened the claim that he would supply the pipeline
Germany gas cheaper than its current EU prices. He divides and monters. and the impact of the EU’s growing energy dependence on Russia
tm but only zan.

Energy prices, vetn gas, are made of kernels inflationas ume, excluded. However, the people and companies are green Of Europe will mean great costs for the whole European economy, not only energy but also geopolitical, in them they strengthen the impression that inflation will be a really lasting rust. Then there would indeed be a new stage of higher price growth, which in times of declining annual dispute (in R, the dispute years rise now, would slowly) sociln boue, and finally the ambitious ambitious green projects of the EU.

Luke Kovanda, Ph.D.

Nrodn ekonomick rada vldy (NERV)

Chief Economist, Trinity Bank


Trinity Bank has been operating on the financial market for 25 years and the transformation of the Moravian Penn State of Savings Bank took place. M tm 25,000 clients and its balance sheet amount exceeds 18 billion K.

Trinity Bank specializes in private and corporate banking, with individuals focusing on deposits and savings products, which offer an above-standard valued dispute.

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