It is possible that Luigi Di Maio is right, when speaking of the referendum he says that “the No front is fashionable in the buildings and the Yes front in the squares.” One way to suggest that the vote on the reform that cuts parliamentarians has a de facto result already written, with all due respect to those who are theorising a recovery of the No compared to the Bulgarian polls of a few weeks ago. Certainly, albeit reluctantly, in the last few days Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni have also started to really cheer for the Yes.
Initially, their support for the referendum was above all superficial and forced by reasons of coherence (with respect to the four steps of the reform in Parliament) and consensus (the presumed overwhelming majority of the Yes and the desire not to endorse an unpopular defeat). In short, a “yes” reluctantly, given the awareness that a majority defeat in the referendum could have unpredictable repercussions on the government as well. Not only would Di Maio come out of it in pieces, but the entire M5s would see the people rejected by the propaganda bulwark on which he made his fortune in the good old days when over 30% sailed. Not to mention Nicola Zingaretti, who in the Democratic Party would end up in the dock for having forced the party to hold a position not only considered wrong but ultimately also a loser. The landslide – combined with the result of the regional which does not appear to be good for M5s and Pd – would end up putting Giuseppe Conte’s chair at serious risk.
The fear of a announced defeat, however, conditioned the choices of Salvini and Meloni. Unlike Silvio Berlusconi who in recent weeks has not hidden his perplexities on the reform that cuts parliamentarians without the necessary corrections to guarantee the representation of some regions in the Senate and the functioning of Parliament itself (in particular the committees). Without going into the merits of how the balance will change for the election of the President of the Republic (the regional delegates will remain 58 and will have a greater specific weight with the reduction of parliamentarians from 915 to 600) or the institution of senators for life (5 out of 200 are certainly more influential than 5 out of 315). In recent weeks, however, those opposed to the cut of the parliamentarians have begun to mobilize, inside and outside the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia. And the reasons for the No have begun to break through in some way. Salvini – a novelty for him – has thus chosen a more Christian Democratic strategy and has in fact “blessed” the “no” of the number two of the Carroccio Giancarlo Giorgetti. “We are not a barracks,” said the former interior minister. And so yesterday the governor of Lombardy Attilio Fontana also made it known that he was against the cut. One way to remain consistent with your position, but still place the Carroccio more in midfield and thus prevent any setbacks. Meloni’s strategy is different and opposite. The leader of Fdi, in fact, stopped the voices of dissent within the party in the bud, so much so that Guido Crosetto preferred to choose the low profile and never returned to the referendum question after a few weeks ago he had very critical words. Even yesterday, Meloni reiterated that she is in favor of Yes. But the truth is that both she and Salvini are beginning to fear that the victory of those in favor of cutting the parliamentarians will no longer be so plebiscite.
And this could be a problem for both of us. If the No’s had the better it would be a triumph, but a victory of measure of the Yes (even a 60% to 40) could instead turn the spotlight on their forced disengagement which at that point – especially given the consensus of the Lega and Fdi – would be decisive .
In short, the sovereign paradox that haunts Salvini and Meloni today is that they are the “saviors” of Di Maio and Zingaretti. And, consequently, of the same Count.
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