Nevertheless, investors are wondering: Has ushered in the past week, the correction in the stock markets, the strategists for weeks prophesy or was it shock, then with the rear?
The week’s end it looked like the nightmare was already over. The Dax gained on Friday, up 1.7 percent. Later, he turned but slightly to the Minus and closed with a discount of 0.3 per cent in the case of 11.935 meters.
On Wall Street, the indices were up while the S&P 500 gained 1.3 percent. On week view, losses are in the case of both indices, however. The Dax lost in the last five trading days, the bottom line of seven percent, the S&P 500 4.7 percent.
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For many experts, this was long overdue. The massive price slump in the stock markets from mid-February to mid-March, was followed finally by a fast-paced Rally. Even though the global economy, and thus the company will get to feel the consequences of the Corona-pandemic for a long time. The Dax index was moved up to seven percent of its all-time high from the beginning of February pre. In the US, the technology stock exchange Nasdaq marked a new record.
Strategists speak of the “most hated Rally” of all time. The reason is that The investors know that economic data are “awful”, as Johanna Kyrklund, chief investment strategist at the British Asset Manager Schroders, puts it. Nevertheless, the markets, even after the recent correction – a V-shaped, so quick recovery of the economy.
The main reason for this is the unprecedented, trillions of heavy aid packages from governments and Central banks. This is exactly why it was also the testimony of US Central Bank chief Jerome Powell, which forced the markets in the past week in the knees.
Powell stressed that the US economy is still a “very unsafe way” is. At the same time, Powell also stressed that American policymakers will keep the key interest rates for at least two years of close to zero percent. Nevertheless, investors have been well aware of: “Central banks can’t teach everything,” as Jan Grengel, an Analyst at the Weber Bank, puts it.
In addition, the state of Arizona and Texas recently increased in the U.S. the number of infections with the Coronavirus again. This made investors, the risk of a second virus wave is still not banned.
Strategists therefore: The cleanup on the stock exchanges is not over yet. “The recent losses are likely to, at least, with a view to the coming months, no new purchase opportunities, but the beginning of a prolonged consolidation mark,” said Frank Klumpp, equity strategist at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW).
DZ Bank expects the Dax-loss of ten percent
Also, Michael Bissinger, equity strategist at DZ Bank, assumes that the “stock market rally will initially lose momentum”. By the end of September, the DZ Bank expects a Dax level of 10.900 points, the S&P is a Stand of 2,750 meters is predicted. This would correspond to losses of about ten percent in both indexes.
Thus, investors need to adjust according to Bissinger also continue on a high level of volatility. The Kyrklund of Schroders looks so. Therefore, it is with a view on the equity markets, at least “slightly cautious”.
Of higher volatility, the strategists proceed from the self, the more optimistic set for the exchanges. The Bank of America (BoA) provides for the broad European stock index Stoxx Europe 600 until November, a Plus of around 20 percent. You make the fact that sentiment indicators such as purchasing Manager indices have their lows already.
The French Fund house Carmignac looks to be the similar. The corona crisis is an extraordinary one-time event and the economy should return to more normal levels, therefore, again – as long as there is no “nasty Surprises” with a view to the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2-virus-induced lung disease. Nevertheless, Carmignac warns of a prolonged recession. Under the surface there are still many problems, such as, for example, the margins of the company. They had already stood in front of the corona of crisis, under pressure and would worsen now.
Many investors to the view of the French Fund house, but on point of view: “you can count on the Central banks support the markets.” This could be fine for a while, but just recently watched redeployment in zyklischere and in less of a solid company is built “on Sand”. Because many investors bought now the shares of companies that do not want to have in the long term, even in the Portfolio.
Many investors chase the Rally, and the rising rates. Bissinger of the DZ Bank, says: “to miss The fear of doing something has driven the markets”. Investors are, however, in the view of Andreas Huerkamp, equity strategist at Commerzbank, again too optimistic. He reads it, that is just like in the USA, the ratio of call options to put options”, for the first time since January, to a level that was often seen before the corrections to”.
The EU summit in view
The direction In which the exchanges will be in the next week knocking out, depends, but probably again of the policy. Next Thursday and Friday, the EU heads of government will meet for their next summit. This is especially a common line with the planned reconstruction Fund in the amount of 750 billion euros.
If the heads of government, not a few, Robert Greil, chief strategist for the private Bank Merck Finck, the danger of “a divided Europe is once again more susceptible to doubts about his ability to act – especially in the stock market”.
By the next week, the upcoming economic data is not a big risk for the exchanges, according to experts. So on Tuesday from the ZEW presented stimulus is likely to be increased, the indicator for Germany, according to Economists. This is also true for the US retail sales and industrial production in the United States, which is also on Tuesday. In April both of them were still collapsed, in may you should with the slow re-opening of the shops and the high to be risen the production.
Accordingly, the much-publicized economic indexes for the Metropolitan areas of New York and Philadelphia, which will be released on Monday and on Thursday is likely to be, at least negatively.
Wirecard shall Pay
By the company, Wirecard is in the new week in focus. The payment service provider is released as the last of the Dax group its multiple suspended annual balance sheet. Investors should also be interested in whether the group’s comments on the investigation by the securities Supervisory authority Bafin to market manipulation. The Wirecard is in the Dax, the most fluctuating value. This is due to the rising Doubts about the balance sheet.
But on longer-lasting fluctuations on the stock exchanges to the investors on the broad market. In the longer term, even more sceptical, but from strategists that the stock markets will rise. In the environment of low interest rates, a choice investors than investing in stocks and shares. This Argument was already in front of Corona. With the further decline in interest rates, it is even more so.
More: Interest instead of dividends: corporate bonds compared to equities more attractive again
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