The second wave really scared consumers

It is no longer a collapse, but a “recurring nightmare”. This is what bankers say about the credit market in November. The situation in finances is falling headlong, the forecasts are more and more disturbing, and in addition, Poles do not intend to spend left and right before Christmas. It is almost certain that the “second” wave has already brought a downturn in consumption and investment.

Every month, the Kantar TNS center examines the economic situation in banks, asking the branches whether customers more often apply for a loan, which loans are successful and which are not, or whether they are trying to save more. The answers to these questions give a picture of the economic situation. In November, with the rising second wave of the pandemic and the skyrocketing rise in disease rates, the economy slumped again. People don’t even think about taking loans. Likewise companies.

– This is a recurring nightmare – said Marcin Idzik from Kantar TNS at the press conference of the Polish Bank Association, comparing the situation in November with the spring slump with the impact of the “first” wave in spring.

The most general banking climate indicator, Pengab, fell to minus 11.2pts in November, ie 3.8pts compared to October. The household loan ratio fell to minus 16 points, the most in terms of car and consumer loans. The index calculated for enterprises fell by 14 points compared to October and amounts to minus 8 points.

– The image of the credit market looks particularly negative, both in terms of consumer loans and corporate loans. All detailed values ​​have deteriorated over the course of the month, said Marcin Idzik.

Although there is no official, aggregate data on loans granted by banks in November, bankers already know that the demand for loans has shrunk dramatically.

– Since October, there has been a significant reduction in lending, even compared to April and May this year – said the president of the Polish Bank Association, Krzysztof Pietraszkiewicz at the press conference.

Simultaneously with the decline in indices calculated for loans, in November the assessment of individual clients’ activity in the deposit market increased. But that’s not good news for the economy at all.

– Clear decline in demand for all categories of loans when increasing deposits

is a scenario of tightening the belt, looking for savings and making efforts not to spend. This behavior is typical of crisis scenarios – said Marcin Idzik.

Consumers themselves admit – the tightening of the belt is starting. The consumer sentiment surveyed by the Central Statistical Office fell in November to the level of minus 29.2, which is just a hair higher than in May this year. But the index component – the assessment of the country’s economic situation in November – was lower than in the months of the “first” wave and the lowest in history.

Banking surveys show similar assessments. In November, the bankers’ macroeconomic forecasts for the next six months deteriorated significantly. The forecast of the economic situation of enterprises is minus 64 points, and the forecast of the economic situation of households – minus 68 points. However, the worst forecasts for the country’s economy are. They are minus 70 points.

Let us add that the leading consumer confidence index calculated by the Central Statistical Office, which reflects the expectations of households for the next 12 months, also recorded the lowest value since May.

– All this translates into customer behavior in the banking market – said Marcin Idzik.

A slight drop in the number of cases following the introduction of autumn restrictions encourages the government to withdraw from the restrictions. The opening of shopping centers from November 28 was announced. Will the Poles, encouraged by this, start their Christmas shopping crowds, saving the economy from a deep recession? Research by the consulting company Deloitte shows that no. We are going to spend Christmas with a tightened belt.

Research conducted at the turn of October and November shows that this year we intend to spend an average of PLN 1,318 on gifts, food, travel and meetings with loved ones, i.e. by 29 percent. less than we spent a year ago. Many more people than in recent years say that they intend to buy gifts online. Regardless of official restrictions, the tourism industry will suffer the most from cuts in holiday spending. Almost three-quarters of respondents intend to spend time at home before Christmas and avoid public places, including shops.

A customary large percentage of Poles celebrated and spent money from the loan as gifts. This year, bankers admit that people asking for a loan before Christmas in bank branches are an extremely rare phenomenon. In the opinion of 94 percent. bankers surveyed by Kantar TNS this year there is no such phenomenon as the previous interest of customers in Christmas loans.

Deteriorating forecasts for the situation of households, enterprises and the entire economy are a strong – yet another – brake on investment. In November, 41 percent. bank branches reported that the demand for investment loans for companies fell, when in October the decline in demand was recorded by 26 percent. outlets.

Jacek Ramotowski

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