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Orange with Media Services, published on Tuesday 04 August 2020 at 11:15 am
In an opinion communicated on July 27, the group of scientists recalls that “the future of the epidemic in the short term is largely in the hands of the citizens”. In the absence of collective immunity, a return of Covid-19 in the coming months is “highly probable”
With a confined spring, the summer is testing the social distancing measures hammered out by health authorities.
The dangers of a “relaxation” in the respect of barrier gestures is mentioned by the Scientific Council in an opinion of July 27, which presents a still precarious health situation. “The balance is fragile and we can switch at any time in a less controlled scenario like in Spain for example”, warns the committee of scientists in the document, entitled “Prepare now to anticipate a return of the virus in the fall”.
In the short term, the future of the epidemic “is largely in the hands of citizens”, recalls the Scientific Council, which already anticipates a resurgence of the epidemic in the coming months. Beyond the situation this summer, the group of experts still judges “highly likely that a second epidemic wave will be observed in the fall or winter.”
Collective immunity is still a long way off
“The current spread of the virus in the countries of the Southern Hemisphere (South Africa, Australia, South America …) subject to the southern winter foreshadows what could happen in France on the return of winter”, details the document.
As for a hypothetical collective immunity, the road is still long. “The collective immunity threshold needed to stop the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 will be higher for SARS-CoV-2 compared to pandemic influenza viruses (around 66% versus 33%). However, the models and surveys available at the end of the first epidemic wave suggest that only 3-9% of the French population has been infected during this first wave. We are therefore far from the level required for a spontaneous stop of the circulation of the virus and new epidemic waves are to be feared, ”he said.
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