The deputies remembered Soviet deposits right now not by chance: a government report is planned for the near future in the State Duma, during which this issue is likely to be raised. The fact is that our state has recognized that duty to citizens of 30 years ago and even fixed its obligations in the law. It was only realistic to implement this law – that is, to settle accounts with affected depositors – not one of the often changing Russian governments was able to.
Recall that the money that citizens of the USSR saved up and kept in their accounts in Sberkass – the only Soviet bank available to them – was destroyed by Pavlov’s monetary reform of 1991, hyperinflation, which turned out to be above 2500% in 1992, “freezing” deposits and other delights “ shock therapy. “
However, the state subsequently legally recognized its obligation and promised to return their savings to citizens. Total debt – 315 billion rubles. at the prices of that period, the number of victims is 40 million people. Back in 1995, a law was passed that the state guarantees the restoration and preservation of the savings of citizens placed on Sberbank deposits until June 20, 1991. Recovery of savings, according to the adopted document, should be carried out by transferring them to the target debt obligations of the Russian Federation.
But the government has no opportunity to turn these obligations into real money. Indeed, since then the Russian ruble has gone through a lot of metamorphoses, and its rate, taking into account inflation, has changed hundreds of thousands of times. It is clear even to people far from the economy that today’s ruble is no match for the then.
However, on this occasion, back in the 90s, the law “On the basic cost of the necessary social set” was adopted, which actually establishes certain “rules for the transfer” of Soviet monetary obligations into Russian rubles. But all these recounts are exclusively paper-virtual in nature, since in reality “there is no money, but you are holding on.” Therefore, since 2003, the implementation of this law has been suspended annually.
However, according to the economic justification, which is submitted every year to the State Duma, the financial consequences of transferring guaranteed savings of citizens to the target debt obligations of the state in 2020 are estimated at 45.4 trillion rubles, in 2021 – 47.22 trillion rubles, in 2023 – 49.11 trillion rubles.
“There is nowhere for the state to take such money,” says Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency, associate professor of economics at Moscow State University, “since this is about half of Russia’s annual GDP, 2.25 annual federal budget, or 5.5 volumes of the National Welfare Fund.”
Independent experts do not believe that the state will ever, and even more so, in the near future, be able to fully compensate for those losses: there really is no money for it. However, if it agrees to some, albeit partial, but real compensation (for example, to pay five today for one ruble of that time), this will already be positively accepted by society. Moreover, the recipients of these compensations will be mostly elderly people and hardly, most of them spoiled by high incomes. It would be better if the government finds real one and a half trillion in its zashniks and distributes them among Soviet investors, rather than draw fantastic amounts of 45-50 trillion in legislative papers that no one will ever see.
On the other hand, a generation has grown up over the years that, most likely, is unaware of the fact of such compensation, and has long given up on the Soviet money that their parents and grandfathers saved up, and which were lost at once in the beginning of 90 s.
“It is good that the deputies are concerned about restoring the accumulations of citizens. But it’s not clear: if in enough “well-fed” previous years the authorities could not find sources of financing to restore the funds of Russians who were “stuck” on Sberbank deposits, then where will the money come from because of the pandemic, prolonged quarantine, compression of consumer demand and falling prices for energy sources in 2020? ”, – asks a rhetorical question Alexey Korenev, an analyst with the Finam Group of Companies.
Anton Tabakh assesses the situation even more strictly. “The authorities are not interested in implementing the law on guaranteeing the restoration of Soviet savings, because depositors either died or lost their hope of returning money in 29 years,” the expert said.