“The Return of the Dollar on the Black Market in Egypt: Analysis and Forecasts”

Investing.com – The black market for dollars in Egypt has revived again during the past few hours, coinciding with a report by the British “Standard Chartered” bank, which warned of financing risks that Egypt may be exposed to during the coming period.

The black market witnessed confusion and confusion among dealers due to reassuring government decisions and statements, and international reports stating that the pound will not decline in the near future, which led to a decline in the black market to the level of 36 pounds to the dollar.

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The dollar is moving on the black market

The dollar witnessed remarkable movements against the pound on the black market during the last period, due to expectations about the pound’s decline in the near future.

In this context, a report issued last Thursday by Standard Chartered Bank stated that Egypt needs to pay about $25 billion annually over the next four years (2024-2027), including $10.3 billion in payments to the International Monetary Fund, and $6.2 billion Eurobonds for Eurobonds, during the next two fiscal years.

The bank pointed out that the aforementioned financing risks, which Egypt will face in the coming period, would cause concern among investors and credit rating agencies.

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The pound is between the official price and the price in the parallel market

One of the reasons for the confusion in the black market was also the new government moves, whether in the gold market, or with regard to the offering program, as the past few days witnessed the announcement of the implementation of two deals within the government offering program, which indicates an imminent breakthrough in the crisis.

The Egyptian government decided to exempt imports accompanied by expatriates from fees and customs, with the exception of the value-added tax, which is calculated on workmanship only, which contributed to disentangling the prices of the precious metal in the Egyptian market, and the exchange rates of the dollar on the black market, and also led to a decline in the local market.

However, Standard Chartered Bank expected in its research note that the Egyptian pound will witness a further decline against the dollar, reaching 38.4 pounds against the dollar, in light of the stability of the official exchange rate of the Egyptian pound at 30.9 pounds per dollar since last March. As these expectations of the pound’s decline towards 38 led to the rise of the dollar in the black market once again, to hover now between levels of 38 and 39 pounds per dollar, after it fell to the level of 36 during the past few days.

However, the devaluation of the pound represents a new burden on debt, as with the expectation of a new movement in the local currency rate of about 38 pounds per dollar, as indicated by the British Bank, the debt-to-GDP ratio will be higher than 100% by the end of June 2023 compared to 91.6% in June 2022, According to the estimates of the IMF.