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Inflation is back and showing its usual resilience. In the United States, the inflation rate rose from 1.2% in 2020 to 4.7% in 2021 and 8.1% in 2022. The inflation rate forecast for 2023 is 3.5%, but the latest data shows a disappointingly small reduction. In February 2023, the US annual inflation rate was 6%, but core inflation (excluding volatile energy and food prices) increased by 0.5% and remained high at 5.5%.
Inflation in the euro area shows similar persistence. The annual inflation rate increased from 0.3% in 2020 to 2.6% in 2021 and 8.4% in 2022. And although the inflation rate is expected to decrease to 5.6% in 2023, the recent indicators, similar to the US, are not encouraging. In February, the annual inflation rate decreased only slightly – to 8.5% (from 8.6% in January), while core inflation increased to 5.6% (from 5.3% in January).
