The prices of ANTM, TINS ​​& INCO ‘explode’, are they already expensive?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Reli haThe three shares of three mining issuers that will be included in the Indonesian Battery Holding have not stopped yet. Today, three shares which are also subsidiaries of PT Indonesia Asahan Alumunium (Inalum) or MIND-ID outperformed the price hike of other mining shares.

The three shares belong to PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), PT Timah Tbk (TINS) and PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (VALE). The price of these three shares, today rose more than 2%.

The trigger came from good news after Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan reported that the giant battery company from South Korea, LG Chem Ltd, one of the battery factory investors in Indonesia, is certain to immediately sign an investment collaboration to encourage downstream nickel to become electric car batteries in Indonesia.


Today’s increase itself continues the rally of the three stocks after the news that the Holding Indonesian Battery will be formed in which the three issuers will play an important role in this holding.

In fact, in terms of valuation, the three companies cannot be said to be cheap because they have been rallying high for the last several months.

First, the valuation of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) when using the ratio of its net profit to market price (PER) is 26.74 times. This figure is higher than the industry average of 15.2 times.

When using the book value valuation compared to the share price (PBV) it is also quite expensive, namely ANTM PBV at 1.57 times compared to the industry average of 1.4 times.

The same thing also happened to PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) which had a PER of 30.71 and PBV of 1.55, both of which were above the industry average.

Even PT Timah Tbk (TINS) still posted a net loss of IDR 255 billion for 9 months in 2020 so that PER cannot be analyzed, while TINS ​​PBV is also still quite expensive at 1.69 times.

Even though it has been flying high lately and in valuation cannot be said to be cheap, in fact the rally of the three stocks has not yet broken its all-time high.

ANTM’s record high is at Rp 5,300.unit or around Rp 4,400 / unit when taking into account the Right Issue that was issued by the company in 2015.

For TINS ​​shares the All Time High (ATH) level is at Rp. 2,625 / unit and for INCO it is at Rp. 11,700 / unit.

All ATH levels were recorded by the three companies at the end of 2007 and early 2008. At that time, commodity prices were on the rise and stock investment instruments were indeed the prima donna. Just before the global economic crisis from the United States Subprime Mortgage hit stock markets all over the world.

The fluctuating stock performance of the three companies is inseparable from the company’s performance which is also fluctuating due to fluctuating commodity prices, although usually on an annual basis these three companies are still able to book a net profit.

In the last 15 quarters, ANTM recorded a net loss of 3 quarters, TINS ​​posted a net loss of 4 quarters as well as INCO which posted a net loss of 4 quarters.

This is certainly a consideration for fund managers and foreign investors in investing in the three stocks. Of course, these giant investors do not want their investment value to suddenly drop due to poor and unpredictable quarterly performance.

Note that foreign ownership in scripless shares, aka scripless, in ANTM’s shares is only 20.67% compared to local holding 79.33%.

Furthermore, foreign ownership in TINS ​​shares was slightly better at 23.88% compared to local ownership of 76.12%.

The best condition occurs in foreign ownership in INCO’s public shares even though it is still dominated by local investors, namely foreign ownership of 40.14% compared to local ownership of 59.86%.

With the Holding Indonesian Battery, it is hoped that the performance of the three companies will be consistent in posting net profit every quarter like giant banks which are the prima donna of foreign investors.

Moreover, considering pThe project for the electric vehicle battery factory is estimated to be worth US $ 20 billion (Rp 296 trillion, assuming an exchange rate of Rp 14,800 / US $). The value is greater than the estimated MIND ID of US $ 12 billion.

This hope can be seen from the foreign net buying action that has begun to enter the three stocks over the past 6 months. ANTM was recorded as a net foreign purchase of IDR 20.37 billion, TINS ​​was bought by foreigners for IDR 40.55 billion, while INCO was collected by foreigners for IDR 88.82 billion.

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

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