The instability among the strongest creates the conditions for a third world war
A firefight broke out on Wednesday along the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Just a day earlier, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan peaked, sparking a conflict that claimed more than 200 lives despite its swift repression.
The frequent clashes between the former Soviet republics are by no means random, experts report, stressing that Russia’s enemies are taking advantage of its vulnerability right now and carefully testing the ground to understand how far they can go in their provocations.
According to information from Kyrgyzstan, a rival border patrol “violated previous agreements between the parties by taking combat positions on an undescribed section of the state border.” Skirmishes between the military are ongoing along the entire border between the two countries, a Kyrgyz official said. He made it clear to “Lenta.ru”.
Tajik customs of the country mortars and artillery,
and Kyrgyzstan returns fire.
Tensions have also simmered for decades in the disputed region of Karabakh, which is controlled by ethnic Armenians and claims independence, but is recognized internationally as Azerbaijan territory. There are serious fears that these tensions, combined with a currently distracted Russia, could erupt into a conflagration greater than even the Armenian-Azerbaijani war of 2020, which claimed more than 1,000 lives.
Russian President Vladimir Putin then negotiated a ceasefire between the warring nations. Today, with Russia mired in its own battles in Ukraine, it is unclear whether the Russian leader will be able to achieve a similar result, as regional stability hangs in the balance, and this holds true for all misunderstandings among the former Soviet republics. which over the years have been immediately pampered
that supposed Russian power that played the part on a balancer
However, the Baku-Yerevan conflict is more than a relic of the Cold War era. Both countries enjoy the support of strong allies, and as the South Caucasus occupies a strategic position in the global energy market, the battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan could reverberate beyond the region and cause a much more severe escalation than in 2020.
However, there are some important differences that can help mitigate the risks and potential escalation in a third world war amid the heated situation around the world. If we look at the events of 2020, we must first consider that Turkey strongly supported Azerbaijan in its offensive. Secondly, there was a lack of Russian peacekeepers stationed in the region.
This time Putin and Erdogan moved quickly to discuss the clashes, perhaps with the aim of finding a way to defuse the situation. They had dinner together as early as Thursday, a meeting that Xi Jinping should have attended, but
the Chinese one president i missed because fear of covid
Leaders shared a two-day meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan between Russia and China’s strained relations with the West since the February 24 invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Russia has sought support in the east to open up a market following unprecedented economic sanctions and its exclusion from a number of international organizations.
During the meeting, Putin acknowledged that his Chinese allies were concerned about the war in Ukraine, although they themselves did not comment on the matter. At the same event, the leaders of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Emomali Rahmon and Sadir Japarov, called for a political and diplomatic solution to the conflict along their border. They discussed the situation and “decided to set up a commission to investigate the causes of the armed incident” to restore peace.
Russia is proof that even the slightest manifestation of weakness on the part of one of the world’s greatest powers triggers a series of military escalations. The world order is crumbling like a domino and problems put powerful leaders between a rock and a difficult place. Vladimir Putin’s forces are concentrated in Ukraine, and according to experts it is becoming increasingly evident that now is not the time for him to be distracted from other areas. It is precisely for this reason that the smaller countries, which have hitherto remained silent for fear of the consequences, allow themselves open provocations.
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