The numbers are not exactly what they seem

Coronavirus, more swabs, more infections but fewer deaths

The growth curve of infections in the pandemic from coronavirus Covid-19 is back, overwhelmingly, to grow yesterday, October 8, 4458 new cases have been registered, bringing the current total to almost 66,000 sick, 22 deaths. But is a new wave similar to that of March really underway? Are we really rushing into a new lockdown? Let’s see together the certain numbers taken from the analyzes of the Sole 24 Ore Laboratory. to better understand the state of the art. The details

Certain numbers

Let’s start from the data, the reliable data. To date from the beginning of pandemic in Italy they registered 338,398 almost coronavirus Covid-19, of which 236,363 have recovered. As said, today, October 9, 2020, There are 65,952 people tested positive for the swab of which 3925 hospitalized in the classical ward e 358 in intensive care. Most of the infected, 61.669, I am in home isolation. The dead people are 36.083. The ratio of swabs performed to positive cases went from 1.6% in August to 3.5% yesterday.

Coronavirus averages and indexes of infections and deaths

Drawing on Professor’s analysis Paolo Spada, author of popular Facebok page, Pills of Optimism, we can note that, inlast week, an average of 2998 new positives per day. The daily average of the last four weeks is 1406 for that from11 to 17 September, 1614 that from 18 to 24 September, 1869 that from September 25th to October 1st and, as mentioned, 2998 in that from 2 to 9 October. The average ratio between swabs carried out and people tested positive, on the same dates, is of 2,66% the first week, 2,87% in the second, 3,31% in the third e 4,67% for the fourth. Important numbers but far from those of March and indeed very similar to those of May when the lockdown was suspended.

The hearing in the Chamber of Professor Bacchus

Finally, it should be noted that the the number of deaths is instead constant and has stood at an average of 24 for at least two weeks. Definitely less than in recent months. Admitting that we can speak of death from coronavirus and not from general contributing causes as specified, in great detail, Professor Pasquale Mario Bacco, a qualified university researcher and lecturer in forensic medicine, in his recent hearing at the House of Representatives. We close the analysis with a comparison between the Italian data and those of the main ones EU countries. Also in this case theelaboration by Professor Spada on ECDC data. In Italy for the past seven days we have had 0.27 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. In Spain the average is 1,65, in France of 0.75, in United Kingdom of 0.5, in The Netherlands by 0.65, in Belgium by 0.6, in Austria by 0.4. Better than us alone Sweden, Romania and Portugal. This does not mean that the virus is less bad and less dangerous, and the invitation we do is to always strictly observe the safety instructions, but simply that cures have definitely improved compared to March and April. A more than valid reason not to fall into a new lockdown.

– >>> Read also Coronavirus, certain data say: fewer deaths and fewer hospitalizations in intensive care

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