All key indicators are down. If we forgot that France had been living for more than a confined month, we could almost believe that the epidemic was about to end. In the last epidemiological point published on Friday by Public Health France, the number of cases reported by the Sentinelles network, which collects data from general practitioners, by SOS Doctors, or even hospitalization data all indicate a decrease in the number of patients. In the last week, an estimated 7,000 people across the country have come to a consultation, doctor or emergency room for a Covid-19. The previous week, there were still 30,000 consultations, and 90,000 two weeks before.
Confinement is therefore clearly bearing fruit, but the results are not yet as spectacular for hospitalizations and deaths, which occur several weeks after the date of infection. The results show “Stabilization of hospital activity linked to Covid-19 at a high level”. If the dynamics remain the same in the coming weeks, which should be the case thanks to confinement, the load linked to Covid-19 on hospitals should also drop significantly.
A France cut in half
The number of hospital deaths is tending to stabilize around 3,400 per week, and is also expected to decrease in the coming days. “We are more on a plateau than on a real peak, which implies that the decline in deaths will not be rapid but very gradual”, explained with caution Thursday evening the Pr Jérôme Salomon, director general of health, when the death toll stood at 17,900. At the national level, the excess mortality compared to the average for the previous years is now very significant: it was estimated at + 16% for the week from March 23 to 29, and at + 34% for the following week.
The country still seems convinced of the usefulness of containment. According to a survey conducted on March 30 and 1er Last April, 95% of those questioned explained that they respected the three measures of physical distance, namely staying at home, limiting all forms of interaction, and keeping a distance of at least 1 meter from others. Overall, the respondents remain mostly satisfied with their current lives. This figure is even increasing, since they were 67% on March 23 to 25, against 74% on March 30 and 1er April.
France is still cut in two with a western zone relatively untouched by the disease. The regions most affected by the number of serious cases are Île-de-France, Grand Est and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. New Aquitaine, Brittany, and PACA are the only three metropolitan areas to have seen no excess mortality as of April 15.
Children are still little affected by the disease. They represent less than 1 percent of hospital admissions and deaths. Only one Covid-19 child under the age of 10 died. People over 65 represent 92% of deaths.
On the other hand, the decrease in the number of emergency visits and hospitalizations for non-Covid pathologies worries Public Health France. That “Highlights, in particular, the risk of less recourse to care for fear of contamination or for mild cases”. The agency therefore recommends that people with unusual symptoms do not delay in consulting their doctor or going to the emergency room.
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