Shinzo Abe‘s first premiership, which began in 2006, was marked by a sharp decline in public support, partly due to issues surrounding political donations. This downturn culminated in the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) defeat in the 2007 Senate election. Despite initial declarations of his intent to persevere, internal party pressure and a worsening of his ulcerative colitis led Abe to abruptly resign. This departure sparked criticism, with accusations of him evading responsibility and speculation that his political career was over.
Following Abe’s resignation, Japanese politics entered a period of unstable, short-lived cabinets, and the LDP lost power in 2009 to the Democratic Party of Japan, led by Yukio Hatoyama.However,Abe staged a remarkable comeback in 2012,leading the LDP back to power and initiating his second,long-term premiership. This resurgence is widely referred to in Japanese politics as “Abe’s reversal drama.”
A significant rival for Abe has been Shigeru Ishiba. Ishiba has now reportedly achieved his ambition of becoming prime minister, a advancement attributed to Abe’s passing and the subsequent dissolution of party factions. Though, the article questions the likelihood of Ishiba replicating abe’s “reversal” given the current political landscape, which includes defeats in both the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as internal and external pressures.The primary reason cited for Ishiba’s diminished prospects is his lack of factional support, in contrast to Abe’s ability to consolidate power by securing backing from key party figures like taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga, and Akira Kane.The article suggests that Ishiba, perceived as having lower popularity within the party, struggles to build a comparable political foundation. Without a surprise victory, it is deemed arduous for Ishiba to overcome the current political deadlock.
