The AEX indication is -0.8%, because there was one get lost Fed last night. That is for the right reasons, but it is not convenient for the stock market.
The economy is doing better than expected… creating inflationary pressure. It is a simple lesson from basic economics textbooks and it was the message from the Fed yesterday with the interest rate decision. No new quarter, but that could still come and don’t count on interest rate cuts for the time being, the central bank said.
Because the fight against inflation will continue until it falls back to 2%. So a hawk decides, causing shares in general and growth in particular to fall (something to do with valuations and interest rates) and the dollar and US interest rates to rise. Say it: defensive and financials versus growth and cyclical today on the Damrak?
European futures open between -0.3% in Milan and -1.0% in Paris. The American futures are -0.2% (Dow Jones) and -0.4% (Nasdaq 100) and Asia is in really bad shape. China and India are still at -0.6%, but Japan, Korea and Taiwan contribute 1.2% to 1.5% in Alibaba -2.2% Tencent -1.9% TSMC -1.5% Samsung – 1.0% Volatility (CBOE VIX Index) is +7.3% at 15.1 and the BofA MOVE Index (bonds) is -4.2% at 97.0 The dollar rises 0.2% to 1.0639 Gold drops 0.1%, oil loses 0.6% and crypto has to make do with 0.2% less. Bitcoin is now at $27,090.55
Interest rates are rising again – the US is showing a big new top – and the Bund doesn’t dare yet?
Here you see the US ten-year yield, new top. Just like the two-year-olds. We will see how much upside room (expensive) shares have with those higher interest rates. Today we may also read from the Philadelphia Fed Index for September that the American economy is doing better?
Read our own report on the Fed interest rate decision.
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) September 20, 2023
Or take a quick look:
‘We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate,’ said US Fed chair Jerome Powell, after keeping interest rates unchanged for now pic.twitter.com/HqASOTbky8
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 21, 2023
The crux is here, see the new economic estimates from the Fed itself here. It’s about that left column, see how the estimates have changed compared to June. Mainly GDP, but therefore also higher inflation. Please note, this is not a timetable, but guesswork.
Another picture, expectations for the next Fed interest rate decisions have increased slightly. This is for January next year with the highest estimates now. A narrow majority still does not expect an extra quarter.
The British, Swiss, Turkish and Norwegian central bank interest rate decisions today, especially those in London, are attracting attention. After the better-than-expected inflation figures for August yesterday, the market is doubtful about a new penny The Auld Lady of Threadneedle Streetthat you are below.
Then there was a stock market debutant on the NYSE at $30 per share, Klavoyo: +9.2%. Instacart closed -10.7% at $30.10, a duppie higher than its introductory price on Tuesday. Arm fell 4.1% to $52.91, which is no longer $2 above the IPO price of $51 exactly a week ago.
There is hardly any news and agenda on the Damrak. And the AEX? That continues sideways, or will we see a lower intraday bottom today? On August 18 it was 729.10.
News, advice, shorts and agenda
The most important ABM Financial news since the Amsterdam close yesterday.
08:02 AEX awaits red opening after American interest rate decision 07:35 Adyen joins forces with True Alliance 07:13 Ajax association has new board 07:06 European stock exchanges open lower 07:02 Update: Fed less likely to cut 06:58 Unemployment stable in August 06 :56 The Netherlands invested more in July 06:55 Dutch consumer confidence slightly less negative 06:46 Stock market agenda: Dutch companies 06:46 Stock market agenda: foreign funds 06:46 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic 20 Sep Stock market update: AEX on Wall Street 20 Sep US interest rate decision pressure on Wall Street Sep 20 Oil prices closed lower Sep 20 Update: Fed keeps interest rates unchanged Sep 20 Fed keeps interest rates unchanged Sep 20 Wall Street prices are mainly higher Sep 20 European stock markets closed higher
No AFM for a while shorts, because short selling is down. The agenda and it is the first autumn day of the year, central banking day.
06:30 Consumer confidence – September (NL)
06:30 Investments – July (NL)
06:30 Unemployment – August (NL)
09:30 Riksbank – Interest rate decision (Sweden)
09:30 Swiss National Bank – Interest rate decision
10:00 Norges Bank – Interest rate decision
13:00 Turkish Central Bank – Interest rate decision
13:00 Bank of England – Interest rate decision
2:30 PM Aid Applications – Weekly (US)
14:30 Philadelphia Fed index – September (VS)
4:00 PM Existing Home Sales – August (US)
4:00 PM Leading Indicators – August (US)
And then this
The look back with technology (something to do with valuations, future earnings and interest rates) on the defensive of the Fed:
Dow Jones -0,2%
S&P 500 -0,9%
Nasdaq Composite -1,5%
Nasdaq 100 -1,5%
Russell 2000 -0,8%
Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index -0,9%
WATCH: Wall Street’s main indexes slumped after the Federal Reserve held key interest rates unchanged, as expected, but projected another rate increase by the end of the year pic.twitter.com/uwKvz2KzmG
+5.8% on figures:
FedEx shares pop on hefty profit beat, UPS customer wins pic.twitter.com/BJA92sVbRH
Chair Jerome Powell says the Fed is “fairly close” to where it wants to be on interest rates pic.twitter.com/MW8ecStqSx
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) September 20, 2023
Staking is now really hip again:
WATCH: Unions at Apple’s stores in France have called for a strike on Friday and Saturday, when the iPhone 15 is due to be launched, demanding better pay and working conditions pic.twitter.com/GueZ476xzY
Because in the meantime in Detroit and the surrounding area:
Detroit’s Big Three automakers and the United Auto Workers remained far apart in labor negotiations, less than 48 hours before the union’s deadline to make significant progress or escalate a strike with new work stoppages. More here:
Talking about hip. The word AI was not mentioned once at the Fed:
At Nvidia, the term AI is used in every sentence:
Well, what is expensive?
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) September 21, 2023
— CBS (@statistiekcbs) September 21, 2023
Have fun and good luck today.
#bad #stock #market #good #reason #IEX.nl