The essentials of BAM’s 2019 report on the economic, monetary and financial situation

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:47 PM

Rabat – Here is the essence of the annual report of Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) on the economic, monetary and financial situation for the 2019 financial year, presented last Wednesday to HM King Mohammed VI on the occasion of the Feast of the Throne:

• After declining to 3.6% in 2018, global growth decelerated sharply to 2.9% in 2019, reflecting a slowdown from 2.2% to 1.7% in advanced countries and from 4.5% in 3.7% in emerging and developing economies.

• Faced with the escalation of trade tensions and difficulties in certain sectors of the industry, in particular the automotive industry, growth in world trade slowed down significantly in 2019, falling to 0.9% after 3.8% in 2018. This This evolution reflects the deceleration of exports, the pace of which fell from 3.3% to 1.2% for advanced countries and from 4.1% to 0.8% for emerging and developing economies.

• In 2019, the growth of the Moroccan economy decelerated again, falling to 2.5% after 3.1% a year earlier. This change is mainly explained by the 5.8% contraction in agricultural value added, under the effect of unfavorable climatic conditions, while that of the non-agricultural sectors marked an acceleration from 2.9% to 3.8%. .

• The national economy will have created 165,000 jobs, and taking into account a net entry of 135,000 working people into the market, the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.2%.

• After reaching 1.6% in 2018, inflation, measured by the change in the consumer price index, weakened significantly in 2019 to 0.2%, its lowest level since 19681.

• The budget execution for the year 2019 ended in a deficit, excluding privatization, of 47 billion dirhams (billion dirhams), up 12.9% from one year to the next and in excess of 3.6 billion dirhams compared to the target of the finance law.

• The trade deficit recorded in 2019 a worsening of 3.2 billion dirhams to 209.2 billion dirhams, imports having increased by 9.8 billion dirhams against 6.6 billion dirhams for exports. The coverage rate therefore improved by 0.2 percentage point to 57.4%.

• In 2019, the national currency depreciated by 2.4% against the US dollar, covering a bull market effect of 0.8% and a bear basket effect of 3.2%, following the depreciation of the euro by 5.2% against the dollar. Against the euro, it has risen by 3%.

• Bank lending recorded a clear acceleration in 2019, its pace having increased from 3.2% to 5.3%, bringing its ratio to GDP from 78.5% to 79.7%. This increase reflects an improvement in the growth of loans to the non-financial sector from 3.1% to 5.5% and, to a lesser extent, that of loans to financial companies from 4% to 4.4%.

• On the real estate market, asset prices remained virtually stable in 2019 for all categories of property. At the same time, the number of transactions fell by 3.6%, with declines of 10.1% for land, 4.4% for goods for professional use and 1.7% for residential.

• In 2019, gross national disposable income reached MAD 1,203.4 billion, up 3.6% compared to 2018. Taking into account a 3.5% increase in national final consumption to MAD 883.3 billion, national savings stood at 320.1 billion dirhams, or 27.8% of the GDP.

• Currency circulation increased by 7.1% to MAD 250.2 billion in value, or the equivalent of 21.7% of GDP. In terms of volume, the number of banknotes increased by 6.3% to reach 1.8 billion dirhams, dominated by denominations of 200 dirhams with a share of 52%.

• The number of counterfeit banknotes increased by 6% in 2019 to 9,575 banknotes, worth 1.5 million dirhams (MDH). Counterfeits have particularly targeted the 200 dirhams cut, representing a share of 69% and by series of issues, it is that of 2012 that is predominant with a share of 46%.

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