The slowdown of the economy due to interest rate increases, inflation or the effects of the war in Ukraine – this is the economic scenario for the coming quarters, predicted by economists for Poland. Also those from public institutions, such as the president of the Polish Development Fund, Paweł Borys, who in May warned that “in two or three quarters we may enter a technical recession” (ie a decline in GDP quarter on quarter).
How deep will the slowdown be and what will be its consequences for the labor market? Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty here related not only to external factors, but also m.in. the policy of the NBP or the government. A significant increase in unemployment is a distant scenario. Ba, Ministry of Finance in the assumptions for the draft state budget for 2023, it even included that end In 2022 and 2023, the registered unemployment rate will amount to 5.1%, which is the same as today.
However, the labor market will certainly cool down. It should be expected that companies will reduce the appetite for finding and fighting for employees. What will this mean exactly? For example, no raises, no bonuses or rewards, and greater difficulty in finding a new, better job. If inflation does not start to decline, it will also mean a decline in real wages (ie, wages adjusted for inflation) for larger and larger groups of workers.
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Poland is threatened by recession? Melanoma: The risk of stagflation is very high
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- Read more about the labor market on the home page Gazeta.pl
The boom in job offers is ending
In recent days, at least two studies have appeared indicating that the employee market in Poland (if it is possible to talk about it at all) may end for some time.
Firstly, according to the data collected by the Elementapp.ai recruitment system for Grant Thornton Polska, in May 2022 the number of job offers online decreased for the first time in 14 months. As experts from Grant Thornton Polska note, although usually in May there were more job advertisements, this time compared to April their number decreased by 5 percent. Out of 39 occupations monitored in the report, 34 recorded a decline in the number of job advertisements in the last two months.
Data on the number of job advertisements are important because there are many employees in Poland salary they are growing not because they won a raise with their employer, but because they changed their job to a better paid job. Therefore, lower demand for new employees may limit the pace of wage growth.
The first symptoms of “cooling down” of the labor market are also visible in the latest Randstad study “Employer Plans”. Nearly half of the surveyed companies expect a recession – the most since the 2020 coronavirus marked by the pandemic. Only 8 percent. counts on growth.
This pessimism affects companies’ hiring plans. As experts from Randstad note, currently only 25 percent. companies plan to hire employees. Two years ago, before the pandemic, it was almost 40%, and in the fall of 2021 – just over 30%. Luckily, only 4 percent. companies are planning layoffs. This is as much as in the best periods before the pandemic. The most difficult job to find a new job (or keep the current one) may be in the financial and insurance industry, as well as real estate and business services, and the commercial industry also does not want to significantly increase employment.
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When it comes to wage increases, 28 percent are planning them. companies, almost half as much as at the end of 2021. Some consolation is the fact that the Randstad survey shows that if a company is planning a raise, it is rather not meager (in the range of 2-4%), but a bit more specific ( about 7 percent and more).
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Poles want to change jobs en masse
Grant Thornton and Randstad reports do not sound the alarm dramatically, but they nevertheless show the first symptoms of what economists are talking about – an economic slowdown that will limit the “employee market” (ie the willingness of companies to hire new employees and significantly raise wages).
These data are crucial because, according to another recent study – the consulting company Deloitte – every second Polish employee surveyed intends to change jobs within the next six months. Among the most important factors that induce a change of employer are, of course, low wages (apart from the lack of development opportunities and “ineffective processes in the organization”).
If you are among the half who are motivated, among others, by he wants to change jobs because he wants higher earnings, it seems that it is better not to postpone these plans.
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