Only the government will feel the effect of the measures announced earlier in the week. These are not measures, but anti-measures. Pouring money on a hat achieves one effect – increasing inflation. Bargaining is taking place everywhere and tensions will be temporarily eased. This forecast was made to the Bulgarian National Radio by the macroeconomist Assoc. Prof. Grigor Sariyski from the Institute of Economics of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.
According to him, by reducing VAT and fuel excise taxes, the richest 10% of Bulgarians will receive 20 times more money than the poorest 10%.
“The only sensible draft measure – the introduction of social tariffs so that money can be directed to those who really need it, has been the most criticized,” the economist said, adding that the most important economic problem was not addressed by government officials. and it is the food crisis.
“If this crisis occurs, then it is absurd to structure measures … A system of grain control and sanctions for large deviations from the average quantities maintained over the years must be introduced. If you have too rapid a reduction in stocks, then accelerated “Exports and this is a threat of a grain crisis. If there is a sharp increase in stock availability, it means overstocking, which will also lead to a crisis,” said the expert.
He added that for the first time in history there was the biggest discrepancy between inflation rates and the key interest rate of the European Central Bank, and “this par excellence generates inflation”.
Assoc. Prof. Sariyski stressed that Bulgaria is dependent on imports of Russian fuels and this deficit will be felt particularly strongly:
“There are experts who constantly explain how many deposits there are in Bulgaria. The statements of the Bulgarian government that we will de-Russify at the fastest possible pace lead me to think that the government has reason to believe that there will be an acute deficit, which will lead to opening projects that have been frozen for many years. When something is done on fire, it is always catastrophic. We saw it with privatization in the 1990s, now we will see it with fuel extraction. “
He pointed out that the eurozone is starting to shake, and the sooner new countries enter it, the better. “Entering the eurozone, you can’t get out of there. More and more countries – Romania, Poland, Hungary – are pulling because they’re not sure what the eurozone will look like next week … The EU is easily changing its rules and this worries countries that are outside the eurozone to want to enter it, “Sariiski said.
The opinion of the macroeconomist is that the crisis in our country is already a fact, but everything possible is being done not to take it into account:
“The effects of the conflict in Ukraine are yet to be felt. There is accumulated inflationary tensions. Look at producer prices in agriculture and producer prices in the manufacturing industry. Some have 25% growth, others 36%. Over the next few months, all this accumulated tension. it will be transferred to the final prices and Bulgarians will start buying less “.