The downturn in the markets will be followed from day to day without excluding any scenario

Sharp turn to the downside after that on the day of setup clear bearish signals had been generated by 16 September.

The market decline will be followed day by day without excluding any scenario and without any preconceptions. Where will we go from now on? Could today’s one be a false signal or is it the beginning of a steep decline?

Usually bursts of momentum like today’s do not generate signals of a few sessions and in fact the feeling, supported by the historical series, leads us to be cautious.

We do not deny that in the next 10/15 days we can see further strong declines. This except tomorrow, today’s signal will not be negated by a strong rally.

Difficult and crucial situation

At the time of writing the markets are quoting at the following price level:

Dax Future

12.615

Eurostoxx Future

3.171

Ftse Mib Future

18.895

S&P 500

3.260,58

Is this the right time or is it yet another false signal? Let’s keep the pulse of the situation through empirical data.

Downside probability

For a couple of weeks we have entered a cyclical window which in most cases leads to strong falls.

In blue the graph of the world stock exchanges until the close of 11 September.

Our annual forecast is in red.

The decline should continue throughout the first ten days of October.

The downturn in the markets will be followed from day to day without excluding any scenario

Here are the data and levels to watch out for tomorrow.

Dax Future

Lasting increases only in the weekly close of 25 September above 13,435. Reduction in progress and new rises only with daily closing on 22 September above 13,137.

Eurostoxx Future

Lasting increases only in the weekly close of 25 September above 3,386. Reduction in progress and new rises only with daily closing on 22 September above 3,278.

Ftse Mib Future

Lasting increases only in the weekly close of 25 September above 19,980. Reduction in progress and new rises only with daily closing on 22 September above 19,375.

S&P 500

Lasting increases only in the weekly close of 25 September above 3,426. New rebounds only with daily close on 22 September above 3,286.

We will proceed step by step.

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