The descent of new Covid cases has stopped: “Something has happened”

In many European countries, including Italy, the downward curve of infections has reversed: in the last week the cases of Covid have grown more than expected and conspicuously in Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Spain. The figure emerges from the latest forecast tables of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (Ecdc).

According to estimates by the ECDC Covid forecasting center, between 26 June and 3 July in Spain there should have been 21,743 cases, instead there were more than double, 51,405. In Italy, 5,222 instead of 3,909. In Belgium, ECDC forecasts gave 1,960 new cases for the same week, there were over 4,000.

The death curve, which remains stable overall: in Spain 13 more in a week than expected, in Italy 26 more, in Belgium 8 less. In the United Kingdom, where infections have started to rise again since the last week of May, the deaths were 118 instead of the 164 estimated.

“Something happened”

“Something has happened that has stopped the decline in new Covid infections. The math of the virus says so.” So interviewed by La Repubblica Roberto Battiston, professor at the University of Trento, who has been analyzing the trend of the pandemic in Italy for months with methods of analysis such as those used in fundamental physics and astrophysics.

“For twelve consecutive weeks we had witnessed a constant and inexorable descent. The week that ended on Saturday, however, recorded a quantity of new infected substantially equal to the previous week”, explains the physicist, for whom it is evident that ” Something has intervened to block the decline triggered by the vaccination campaign. Delta variant? From my point of view it is possible and even probable. It seems that this spread is beginning to be visible also in the number of newly infected. The second wave has run out, but it is too early to say if the third is incubating. It is certainly a sign to which great attention must be paid “, concludes Battiston.

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