Home » World » The curves of new and dead cases are flattening in Europe. Brazil, Turkey and India are still out of control – Observer

The curves of new and dead cases are flattening in Europe. Brazil, Turkey and India are still out of control – Observer

Spain, Italy and France seem to be crossing a plateau of the curve, Donald Trump guarantees that the United States has already passed the peak, but Brazil, India and Turkey still have somewhat uncontrolled situations. The Spaniards are pleased with the limited daily increases in the new cases, the Italians and the French look with optimism on the decrease of people in intensive care units. The Americans continue to have the most worrying situation in New York, in India and Turkey, which overtaken Iran in infected, there is a fear that the real numbers of the pandemic are not known and in Brazil, which has changed the Minister of Health. this week, the death rate is over 6%.

These are the countries that seem to be reversing the trend of the contagion curve and those that are still far from controlling the pandemic situation.

Although Italy continues to be the European country where the new coronavirus was the most deadly, it is in Spain that the highest number of infected people in Europe is found. With the numbers updated this Saturday, there are now 192,920 confirmed cases since the beginning of the pandemic and 20,043 fatalities. This weekend, the Spanish media reports a “stagnation” of the curve and a postponement of a prolonged drop in daily numbers.

This Saturday, there were 565 more deaths in Spain, a number that despite being lower than the previous day is in line with the values ​​presented since April 11th. Still, a figure that is far, for example, from the 950 people who died between April 1 and 2, and which represent the highest daily increase since the beginning of the pandemic.

Although the crash recorded last week suffered a slight braking during this week, Fernando Simón, epidemiologist and director of the Spanish Ministry of Health’s alert and emergency coordination center, ensures that the evolution is “clearly positive”. During the presentation of this Saturday’s data, Simón supports this conclusion by looking at the figures for the last 14 days, as this is the time that elapses between infection, the development of symptoms, the test and entry into official statistics. “Today we know that transmission is much lower,” he explained.

This Saturday, Pedro Sánchez extended the state of emergency until May 9, but the truth is that, this Monday, almost two million Spaniards returned to work. Fernando Simón guaranteed that the restriction measures in Spain will still last “several weeks” and cannot be lifted “at once”. “They will be able to be relaxed as we can verify that the transmission is controlled or that the cases can be controlled. And that the health system can respond without reaching the limits that it suffered, in a scenario of a possible resurgence ”, he concluded.

Spain currently has 191,726 positive cases and 20,639 fatalities.

The last week of March was the worst since the pandemic reached Italy. On March 21, the country reached the highest number of new people infected, 6,557 in 24 hours, and it was also at that time that the highest number of deaths was recorded in a single day, 919. Since then, Italy has moved away from the peak of the pandemic – albeit in a very non-linear way and with fluctuations.

The country has fewer cases than Spain, but in fatalities it is only surpassed by the United States. More than 23,200 people have died since the pandemic arrived and the numbers, although progressively more positive, remain dramatic: in the last 24 hours, 482 deaths and 3,491 new cases were recorded. In percentage terms, however, these figures do not go beyond 2.1% and 2%, respectively, figures that are representative of the trend reversal in the country.

Another detail that has deserved attention in Italian daily bulletins is the decrease in cases hospitalized in intensive care units. This indicator has been dropping for more than two weeks: it started by decreasing less than 1% over several days and in the last week it actually decreased by 3%. Currently, there are 2,733 people hospitalized in these units in Italy, 79 fewer than this Friday and 203 less than Thursday.

Even so, Italy has been experiencing a stagnation in the numbers for about 12 days, with no major rises or falls in the main indicators. The peak will be over, probably in that last week of March, but the long-awaited progressive decline is proving to be slower than expected in a country that has been quarantined for six weeks. Nevertheless, the country reopened this week some small stores, such as computer, baby clothes, laundry or bookstore establishments, where the use of masks by employees is mandatory. The remaining services, such as cafes or restaurants, remain closed until at least 4 May.

Italy currently has 175,925 positive cases and 23,227 fatalities.

France is now the fourth country in the world in number of cases and number of fatalities – the latter indicator is already approaching 20 thousand deaths, having reached 19,323 this Saturday. As in Italy, the great French hope has come from the decline in people admitted to intensive care units. This weekend, that number dropped for the tenth consecutive day and 1,563 infected people left hospitals in the last 24 hours, between intensive care and hospitalization.

Emmanuel Macron announced the extension of the confinement measures until May 11

In the line of Spain and Italy, France crosses a kind of plateau – although a few weeks behind the situations of the other two countries, with numbers still high compared to the French reality since the beginning of the pandemic. The peak will have been reached, probably during the first week of April, but the values ​​have not yet fallen so that it is possible to indicate that the French curve is falling.

This week, Emmanuel Macron announced the extension of the confinement measures until May 11, even though “the most vulnerable, elderly, people with chronic diseases or severe disabilities” should stay at home longer. Schools and day care centers should reopen at that time, but not universities, bars, restaurants and concert halls.

France currently has 151,793 positive cases and 19,323 fatalities.

If Spain, Italy and France are on that kind of plateau, and if the United Kingdom also seems to be going through a more stable phase with regard to new cases and fatalities, the truth is that the country led by Boris Johnson is still in an area embryonic part of this stabilization. Since April 6, the UK has recorded no fewer than 700 daily deaths and new cases of infection have fluctuated between ups and downs, constantly over three thousand every day.

British experts, in a more original analysis, indicated this week that the evolution of the pandemic curve will not be in “sombrero” format, but in “firefighter helmet” format – in other words, it will not start to fall overnight and this break, as it is happening in Spain, Italy and France, will be long and prolonged over time. Proof of this is that, contrary to what is starting to happen in several European countries, the United Kingdom has not yet announced a relaxation of the social distance measures and Boris Johnson has already guaranteed that the restrictions will have to continue in force.

The UK currently has 114,217 positive cases and 15,464 fatalities.

A few weeks away from the spread of the pandemic community in Europe, the United States has become one of the most followed countries, since the situation became dramatic, especially in New York. Donald Trump announced this Friday a three-phase plan to “reopen America again”, after having already guaranteed that the country has already passed the peak of the pandemic curve. Still, and second Worldometer figures, the United States this week saw an unprecedented daily increase in deaths, a rise in new cases that is very similar to those in the last days of March.

According to the portal that has followed the evolution of the pandemic, the United States diagnosed 6,185 new deaths last Tuesday and has been above the 2,000 daily deaths for five consecutive days. Americans are the country with the highest total number of infected and fatal victims: 537 thousand more cases than those recorded in Spain, 15 thousand more deaths than in Italy. At this time, the United States has almost 730,000 positive cases and more than 38,200 deaths.

The meteoric evolution of the North American situation– a month ago, the daily increase in new cases was less than 2 thousand, while this Friday this increase was over 32 thousand – it makes it difficult to see whether, as Donald Trump has indicated, the peak has already been passed or whether the country is still experiencing an exponential rise in new contagions and deaths.

The most problematic situation remains in the State of New York, where the numbers are drastically higher than in the other North American regions. The state led by Andrew Cuomo has more than 241,000 positive cases and about 17,000 fatalities, 60 thousand and 13 thousand, respectively, above New Jersey, the second most affected.

The United States currently has 736,790 positive cases and 38,920 fatalities.

Contrary to the scenarios in several European countries, the Brazilian case will still have to get worse before it gets better. This Friday, Brazil registered 2,999 new cases, the second highest daily number ever, and 194 new deaths, the third highest figure.

The increases of the two weeks already place Brazil as the 12th country in the world with more cases and the fatality rate is now above 6%. The Brazilian Secretary of Health said this Friday that the hikes of the past few days they are related to the community transmission of the new coronavirus but also to the greater testing capacity. José Henrique Germann also said that 1,500 health professionals are infected and that 72% of the intensive care units in Rio de Janeiro are fully booked.

At this time, Brazil has 36,658 positive cases and 2,354 fatalities.

epa08346116 Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro walks outside the Presidential Palace of Alvorada in Brasilia, Brazil, 06 April 2020. EPA / JOEDSON ALVES

The situation in Brazil seems to be still far from being controlled

As in Brazil, the situation in India is still far from being controlled. Since the beginning of the month, the new daily cases in that country are over 500 and on the 13th, the worst when it comes to this specific indicator, the exponential rise spread to 1,248 new people infected. In fatalities, the known data gives a less dramatic context, since the largest increase did not exceed 49 deaths and daily increases have normally been between 20 and 40 deaths.

Even though an exponential increase in numbers is expected in the coming weeks, the truth is that the majority of the international media believes that the real values ​​are far above the known data. In a population of 1.3 billion people, only about 48 thousand citizens have been tested and there are only 51 testing centers across the country. Only 1% of Indian GDP is devoted to public health, one of the lowest rates in the world and the main concern is related to the probable mass transmission in the slums, where cases have already started to arise and hygiene conditions are far below the recommended.

Still, the Indian government guarantees that the country is not yet on community broadcast and that the cases detected so far have been either imported or located. “We never said that there is community transmission. We are still in the localized transmission ”, assured Lav Agarwal, the Indian secretary of health.

India currently has 15,722 positive cases and 521 fatalities.

This Saturday, Turkey became the country in the Middle East with the most positive cases, surpassing Iran, which became one of the contagion points worldwide. The country already has almost the same cases as China and the fatalities are now close to two thousand, the numbers still appear to be far from initiating a downward trend.

Since April 8, the daily increase in new cases has exceeded 4 thousand and fatalities have seen a clear progressive increase, with new record highs being recorded every day for the past week.

Turkey is the second country in the world, behind the United States, with the highest daily increase in new cases

Confinement measures were extended for another two weeks and the country’s Minister of Health resigned a few days ago, after announcing a regional quarantine for a weekend the previous Friday night. Turkey is already the second country with the highest rate of new infections, after the United States, and it is expected that the figures known and revealed by the government are also not a mirror of the complete situation.

Turkey currently has 82,329 positive cases and 1,890 fatalities.

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