According to the projections of those who participate in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), the average nominal exchange rate will reach $ 86.4 per dollar in December 2020 ($ 1.6 below the previous measurement).
Likewise, regarding the exchange rate, they adjusted their monthly projections downwards, contemplating that it reaches $ 123.2 per dollar by the end of 2021.
Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate for the end of December 2020 will reach $ 86.2.
Regarding economic activity, analysts raised the fall by half a point, according to the REM, although the Central indicated that the projection reflects that the worst moment of the pandemic.
At the end of July, analysts consulted projected that retail inflation for December 2020 will be at 39.5% year-on-year, decreasing the forecasts for the end of June by 1.2 points.
For their part, those who best predicted this variable for the short term expect an average inflation of 37.5% year-on-year, implying a slight increase of 0.3 points compared to what was projected by that group during the previous survey.
For July 2020, the median of the estimates made is 2.4%, while the average of the best forecasters marks an expected variation of 2.2% per month.
Those who participate in REM expect a contraction of the Gross Product for 2020 of 12.5%. Among the best forecasters, the estimate is slightly lower at 12.3%, 0.6% lower than the previous measurement.
“In relation to the previous survey, the expectation of a seasonally adjusted quarterly contraction of GDP for the second quarter of the year deepened, those who participate in the REM forecast a greater expansion of activity for the third quarter,” said the Central.
Likewise, it indicated that the consultants foresee that the level of economic activity will continue to increase during the last quarter of the year (6%), which suggests that the period of greatest impact of the pandemic has already been overcome.
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