/nginx/o/2020/10/22/13428360t1hf703.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1)
Elizabete Auniņa From 2019 to 2020, she was the youngest researcher in the Comprehensive Crisis and Operations Management Center (CCOMC) of NATO’s Supreme Allied Command Europe (SHAPE) in North Africa, the Sahara and the Sahel.
–
On November 3, Ethiopian federal government troops entered the Tigris region of northern Ethiopia, bordering neighboring Eritrea and Sudan. The goal of the Ethiopian government has been to strengthen the rule of law in this area controlled by a political-military organization, the Tiger People’s Liberation Front. On November 28, the Ethiopian government announced that it had occupied the city of Mekele (the political center of Tigris) and had thus ceased its military operation. However, the ruling elite of the Tigris region has said that the fight is not over and resistance to Ethiopian control will continue. In this context, it is important to mention that there are currently around 250,000 people in the Tigris region who could resist the Ethiopian government.
–
Some observers have called the situation in Ethiopia a civil war, but Auniņa points out that it is not relevant in this case. In any case, there are armed clashes between the two sides in Ethiopia and they are governed by the Geneva Convention.
–
Northern Ethiopia and the Tigris region
FOTO: AP / Scanpix
–
What are the roots of the conflict?
–
In 1974, the emperor was overthrown from the Ethiopian throne and replaced by a military junta that was in power until 1991. This period in Ethiopian history is referred to as the “Red Terror”. After the overthrow of the military junta, neighboring Eritrea was formed and an Ethiopian ethnic group came to power in Ethiopia (the same one that lives in Tigris). A constitution was also adopted at this time, which provided for Ethiopia to become a federal and multinational state. Under it, Ethiopia was divided into 10 regions, each with a directly elected government.
–
In 2018, Prime Minister Aby Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia, widely promoting the United Ethiopia program. In principle, it was intended to abolish this historic federal system and unite all ethnically and religiously divided Ethiopians under a single nationalist flag. Ahmed’s rise to power also meant the removal of the Tigris from the throne. Of course, they were not satisfied with this situation.
–
However, the Ethiopian government’s decision to ban elections (including regional governments) throughout the country due to the Covid-19 pandemic gave a spark to everything.
—
However, the Tigris region did not comply with this ban and elections were held. Auniņa points out that this intransigence has created a great challenge for Ahmed, which he could not ignore. Otherwise, other regions of Ethiopia would also have received a signal that it is possible to disobey the country’s central government.
–
Although many viewers have expressed the opinion that the Tigris region may want to secede from Ethiopia, Auniņa rejects this opinion. According to her, the “Tiger People’s Liberation Front” is rather fighting for greater autonomy within Ethiopia.
–
Ethiopian Prime Minister Aby Ahmed
PHOTO: AFP / SCANPIX
–
Why should you know about it in Latvia as well?
–
Latvia has diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, and we are interested in promoting economic ties with that country. In addition, Latvia is also running for election as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Winning these elections will also require the votes of countries in Africa. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has quite a lot of influence among them. Economic issues are also important, as Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa and therefore next to a strategically important point, such as the Strait of Babelmendeb, through which the world’s oil cargoes flow. Ethiopia is also a mediator in the conflict in the region, and it is at the headquarters of the African Union. Finally, Auniņa reminds that one of the problems of the European Union is the flow of refugees, and it cannot be ruled out that the flow of people fleeing the Tiger conflict could also reach the shores of Europe.
–
Could the conflict escalate?
–
Auniņa does not believe that the surrounding great powers would be interested in getting involved in supporting any party. They have their own problems, which they do not want to multiply. Several experts have expressed the view that Egypt may wish to use domestic political instability in Ethiopia to hinder the development of the Renaissance dam project. However, Auniņa does not share this view, as Egypt is currently busy with ongoing military operations on the Sinai Peninsula and wants more than any of the neighboring countries to become a breeding ground for the development of domestic political opposition. According to her, the great powers will not get involved until the war escalates. Until then, only ordinary diplomatic phrases calling for an end to military clashes will be used.
–
At the same time, Auniņa draws attention to the fact that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which financially supports the government of Abijah Ahmed, has significant interests in the ongoing Ethiopia.
—
In this way, the UAE has the potential to play a dialogue facilitator role. This is because economic ties can be turned into political pressure quite successfully.
–
Refugees of the Tigris conflict in Sudan
PHOTO: AFP / Scanpix
— .
