Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Economic predictions or projections in 2021 are haunted by many uncertainties. Only one thing is certain, is uncertainty itself.
The impact of Covid-19 made Indonesia’s economy devastated. Nobody knows when it will end.
The first wave covid-19 may not end until this moment, not to mention the second wave or maybe the third, and (not to) fourth.
The essence of Covid-19 is a vaccine. Vaccine production is expected to reduce the negative impact of Covid-19.
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Photo: Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani gives a Press Statement Regarding Burden Sharing between the Government and Bank Indonesia (Youtube Screenshot of the Indonesian Ministry of Finance)- – |
Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati at a Working Meeting with the Committee IV of the Regional Representative Council (DPD) with a discussion on Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Principles (KEM PPKF) for Fiscal Year 2021 said that almost all countries were confused by Covid-19. “Because of this uncertainty, all countries will continue to try to manage Covid through a variety of policies. Starting from the extreme nature such as lockdown or shutdown from the activity side to the limitative nature, namely limited social movements.”
“It is this uncertainty that we still need to consider and pay attention to in managing our economy this year and next,” Sri Mulyani said.
He said, the outlook for the economy in 2020 was in the range of -0.4% to 1% because in the second quarter it was definitely the economy experiencing a contraction.
Well, Indonesia’s economic collapse or when it touches the deepest negative zone will be seen in the data in the second quarter-2020. What is the prediction?
“The estimate is -3.8% [kuartal II-2020]. However, for the third and fourth quarter or semester 2 of this year, the Government will try its best so that the economic recovery can start running, “he said.
“This is the main concern of the President in various forums to convey to the Minister and all parties that the recovery acceleration can run even though we are still facing the Covid pandemic. So, productive but must remain safe from Covid. Productive but we still use the new normal protocol, namely protocol in the health field, “he added.
For this year, with growth that still ranges from -0.4 to 1% if there is an economic contraction that runs more than one quarter, namely the second quarter and the third quarter, it will cause the possibility of the Indonesian economy in 2020 at a negative level.
However, if Indonesia could recover quickly in the third and fourth quarters, it might still be able to make Indonesia’s economy grow positively at around 1%.
“While for next year growth is estimated to be in the range of 4.5% to 5.5%.”
“Referring to all institutions that carry out economic projections in Indonesia are still in a variety of ranges. There are predictions of the Indonesian economy at 0%, some are deeper negative at -3.39%, some even convey the Indonesian economy can be positive which is around “I would like to say that the economic projections are indeed still filled with uncertainty, but we will continue to try to prepare budgeting plans with such uncertainty,” said Sri Mulyani.
