The full recovery of the Russian economy will take about three years, according to experts of the agency “National Credit Ratings” (NKR). IN research analysts assessed the state of the main industries (they form more than 55 percent of GDP), naming the brakes and locomotives of the economy.
Experts have divided 23 industries into five categories depending on the dynamics of revenue during the crisis and after it: “snails”, “bison”, “badgers”, “horses” and “leopards”. The NKR called machine building, coal mining, air transportation and commercial real estate “snails” (for them, the return to the pre-crisis level will be the longest – more than five years). They form five percent of GDP.
Zubram (oil and gas production, transport, housing construction, ferrous metallurgy, non-food retail and production of mineral fertilizers) were predicted to recover from three to five years. Industries make the largest contribution to the Russian economy – 22 percent of GDP. The revenues of the Russian budget will largely depend on the rate of their recovery.
In two or three years, the electric power industry, infrastructure construction, production of building materials, wholesale trade, production of coke and petroleum products will return to pre-crisis levels, experts predict. They classified these areas as “badgers” (contribution to the economy – 17 percent of GDP).
Food retail, metal mining, non-ferrous metallurgy and telecommunications fell into the “horse” group (over six percent of GDP). These spheres, even during the crisis, were able to maintain growth and in the future will add 1-5 percent per year, analysts are sure. Agriculture, food and pharmaceutical industries, production of rubber and plastic products were ranked among the “leopards”. Experts predict them an increase in revenue of 5 to 10 percent per year and the role of the locomotive of the Russian economy.
Earlier it was reported that the real disposable income of Russians will fall by three percent by the end of 2020.